AFFL Playoff Preview and Predictions 2016: Baby Karma leads the Way

Its officially the second half of the season. After 13 weeks of clawing, smack talking and provocative MEME's of rival managers, the playoff table has been set for the 2016 season. The players from lowest seed to highest: Shabam Shadiq (Avo and Dre), BDiddy (Baret, Mike, Tiggy), Hartan (Harout and Vartan), Vosgereechee Gyank (Mardig), Prime Time (Ara), HBK Shant Michaels (Shant).

Six teams are vying for AFFL history by winning a title, a title that is extremely hard to come by. Over the past 10 seasons, there have been only 5 different teams to win a title: Atomic Bomba (4), Awesomeness (2), Hartan (2), Cobra Kai (1), Jaj Cousteau (1). Just as rare, 8 teams have determined the last 10 match-ups: Atomic Bomba (6), Awesomeness (3), Prime Time (3), Hartan (2), Grabbers United (2), Jaj Cousteau (1), Cobra Kai (1), Magnum Sev.i (1). The consistency of some of the top teams over this span renders making the final game a magical moment for any franchise, immediately boosting a franchises value.

While Prime Time and Hartan are the only two teams that have been to the finals before, BDiddy and HBK have managed to cap out in the semi-finals a few times. Shabam Shadiq has yet to make it out of the first round, while Vosgee Gyank has only one playoff appearance in the 8 years he's been in the league.

Winning the AFFL title is about skill, luck and karma. The first two are almost synonymous with one another, but the latter, karma, is something too real for teams. History has favored teams that enter the playoffs on a hot streak, and have "other" life events going for them. Vosgee's only year of making the playoffs was after he had a child. Grabbers made the final the year he had a child. Cobra Kai won his title the year his boy was born. Baby karma is very real and has already had an effect on the regular season, as Shabam Shadiq changed their name, had a child (not with each other) and became the first 0-4 team to go 7-2 and make the playoffs. Be afraid. Be very afraid.

With all this said, it's time we break-down why each team will win the title and why they won't. The AFFL Playoff Preview has historically been mostly accurate with picking either the winner or at least one finalist. Let's see who the experts think will be holding up the most elusive title in all of fantasy sports. (Prediction after team write-ups)

Shabam Shadiq - Avo and Dre

• 6th seed
• Went 7-2 over last 9 games (hottest team entering the playoffs)
• Baby Karma strong
• Won tie breaker over Bomba week 13 by winning game and outscoring Atomic one by 20

The Case for Shabam

No team in the AFFL is hotter than Shadiq coming into the post-season. Winners of 7 of their last 9 games and 3 of their last 4, the "Diq" has everything going right for them. After suffering a bruttle loss to Bomba week 4 ona last second 50 yard run by Devonta Freeman, the team known then as Hangin' and Bangin' changed their name and had one of their manager's wives deliver a baby. With the baby came an unprecedented 7-2 run and a narrow entrance into the post-season as the sixth seed. Baby karma is a very real thing and should not be taken lightly. AFFL history is littered with baby gaining teams that dominated the playoffs and won titles.

Working for Shabam as well is their seeding. Over the past ten seasons, three of the title winners have been 6 seeds, including 2 in the last 4 years. The lucky six will be on the "diq" side and there is no reason to think they can't run the table for three games.

Looking at the players on the roster, they are all performing at tip top caliber, with a favorable playoff schedule approaching. Winston and Evans are a lethal duo, along with a big bump from McCoy. Ladarius Green looks like a dominant TE1 and could be the difference maker. It is no wonder that AFFL managers have pegged Shadiq as the trendy pick of 2016.

The case against the Diq.

While the 6th seed is working in the Diq's favor, their own history is not. Shabam has yet to win a playoff game in their five appearances. That's not good. While they very well could break-through and win their first game, it may be much to ask for them to win three straight. Aside from Vosgee, every other team has had a history of winning in the post-season and "know how to win." Starting line-up errors can be what bring team Shabam down due to lack of experience. Will they know how to not panic and make too risky a move?

We also must point out that, while Shabam has a roster of studs, there are two major holes: RB2 and Flex. Many of the other teams have studs up and down the roster, while Shabam will have to hope for optimum production from these two spots.

BDiddy - Baret, Mikey, Tiggy

• 5th seed
• Has put up 130+ in 4 of last 6
• Engagement Karma (Baret)
• Has depth as multiple positions.

The Case for BDiddy

The team that has been a dark horse all season long, enters the playoffs with perhaps the most complete roster. Healthy, and with a stable of RB's at their disposal, the Diddy will surely put up points on a weekly basis. Over the past six weeks, Diddy has put up a strong 130+ 4 times, with two of those weeks hitting the 140s. Those are the kind of point totals that you need to win in the playoffs.

Newly engaged BDiddy with Fiancee Sabrina

Let's also not forget the karma they have working for them. No, there were no babies being born in the BDiddy trio (although Tiggy is cared for like one of their children), but Diddy GM Baret got engaged this year, as did Mikey. Engagement karma hasn't had quiet the "ring" to it as baby karma, but it does offer hope. Managers who have gotten engaged during the AFFL season were able to make the post-season just once, Shabam, and did not make it out of the first round. If BDiddy is wise, he may need to start getting to work on the family this weekend.

Diddy gains points for having a deep analytical understanding of his squad, thanks to co-manager Mikey. Crunching the numbers will give Diddy an edge on a weekly basis, and has proven to be one of the aspects of the B-squad that puts them over-the-top when picking winners.  No doubt they will be ready to play and put their best foot forward

The Case against BShitty

If there is one major area of concern for the B-man is that they have been a playoff dud for several seasons, last appearing in the post-season 4 years ago. In fact, they haven't won a playoff game in 5 years, making this team one of the three teams that can claim such a long drought (vosgee, shabam). While they are a different team than five years ago, they are the same sytle of play team, and perhaps they may fall into the same trap of overthinking match-ups as before. For example, Rivers or Mariotta may be a decision that could cause a lose if they choose unwisely.

We also cannot ignore the potential dud that this team has lurking behind veil of their line-up. While they have put up huge point totals over the season, there is the chance that things could go bad quickly. For starters, Having both Rivers and Gordon in at the same time leaves the team open for the chance that SD gets dominated in a given week, rendering both players fantasy unworthy. Add to that a very up and down WR2 and Flex, along with a sub par defense, and one bad week is very much a possibility. Will they be able to avoid this with foresight? We shall see..

Hartan - Vartan and Harout

• 4th seed
• Defending champs
• Remained on top of the division for 9 weeks.
• Baby Karma potential

The Case for Hartan

Let's just start by saying, they are the defending champs. Nothing comes easy in the Affl, and staying atop the division for 9 weeks shows there is some level of consistency in the Varout. We can't ignore this. We also cannot ignore that there were many weeks when the team had a boatload of points on the bench, and probably lost a few games due to the fact they chose the wrong player. Of course, that is what happens when you have options, but it also showcases the depth the squad has.

While other teams have multiple super studs, Hartan has relied on the bread and butter of their WR and QB for the majority of the season. When Ben and Beckham are one, they manage to get enough points from the supporting cast to pick-up the W. With the loss of Gronk, Edelman will have a much more prominent role, rendering him the 3 piece that they may have been missing on a weekly basis.

There is also potential baby karma in the wings, as Harout has managed to deposit some extra luck early in the year in hopes of karmic returns in the post-season. We don't know when Belinda is due, however, if she were to perhaps have the child in the playoffs, we would have to bump Hartan up to the prohibitive favorite. Pregnant karma doesn't offer much, as evidence of Shabam going 0-4. It wasn't til the baby was born that they turned it around. Likewise, Ara's baby came on draft day, so he set himself right for the season.

The Case against Varout

There is no other place to look than the RB situation. Without a true superstar in the RB slot, Hartan will be hoping that match-ups and favorable game flow win him weeks. Gurly, Ingram, and Ajayi haven't been consistent all year long, and could dud on any given week.

We also have to wonder about the point totals the team has put up. The 98 points just three weeks ago is concerning, as is the 117 points two weeks ago while getting 18 from a kicker. In fact, Hartan has only put up 130+ points twice all year, and may not have ceiling of other teams. The team can't rely on big games from only two players. You need 4 studs to compete in the post-season, and Varout will two of the mid-tier players to elevate their game for three weeks straight. That may be too much to ask for.

Hartan has talked their head off the entire season and is perhaps the one team nobody wants to see win. Will the league's negative karma come back to do this team in?

Vosgereechee Gyank - Mardig

• 3rd seed
• Won 6 of last 7 games including 6 game winning streak (longest by a team this season)
• One of three teams that has put up 160+ points
• Hasn't been in playoffs since 2008

Crazy times call for crazy measures. Create your own karma by Vosgee

The Case for Vosgee

In a year where the Chicago Cubs win the world series, Trump wins the white house, could Vosgee be the AFFL version of the same trend? While the team hasn't made the playoffs in 8 years, we should not confuse Vosgee with that of Gyank teams past. This years squad has been ateam of consistency, staying near the top of the Mazoon division for the majority of the season. We also must point out that the squad was the only team in the league to win six straight, posting a weekly high of 165 points during the run. A ceiling like that is the kind of ceiling that wins games in the playoffs. 

Looking at the roster, there is a lot to like with Rodgers, Antonio Brown, and consistent play from Forte, Gore, and Jennings. There isn't a lot of flash, but you need four studs to play pall in the playoffs, and we venture to think that Rodgers, Brown, Forte, and on of the other backs will do enough to remain competitive.

Many will say that Vosgee may just be happy to be in the playoffs, but that won't be what satisfies the Gyank. The road to the title will have to go through fellow newbie Shabam. Neither team has won a playoff game, so Gyank won't have to be playing against seasoned playoff managers until the second round. Sprinkle in the fact that Prime time may have injury issues, and this team has as good a shot as any of making the final.

The Case against the Gyank

Simply put, the lack of experience may do this team in. Gyank hasn't been in the post-season in a while, and it takes a different kind of hutspah to win games weeks 14,15 and 16. Teams that lose in the playoffs are teams that not only get out totaled by their opponent, something they can't control, but also do themselves in by making decisions that they didn't need to make. Vosgee may overthink himself to a loss sooner than later, and with Prime Time, HBK, Diddy, and Hartan all with more playoff experience, he may find himself out maneuvered on any given week.

While the Vosgee has managed the impressive feat of 6 straight wins, the point totals over that streak were very mediocre. Aside from the 165 point week, Gyank hardly cracked 115 points over the last three weeks. The team also has 2 sub 100 point weeks, which coupled with the lack of points to end the season, gives this squad one of the lowest floors in the playoffs. It stands to reason, relying on Gore, Forte and Jennings, three old and injury prone backs may come back to bite the "golden pen." Furthermore, Rodgers opens with Seattle, a match-up that is sure to cap his numbers. Lastly, Vosgee is the only team without baby or engagement karma. That may be this years theme. Which begs the question..Is the team built for the playoffs?  This team could fizzle. Don't say we didn't warnyou.

Prime Time - Ara

• 2nd seed
• 140+ points 2 out of last 5 weeks and 4 times over the season
• One of only 2 teams to put up 160+
• Early Baby Karma (draft day)

The Case for Prime Time

This is Prime Time. The Prime Time aura has been one of near, but never certain death. These teams are the equivalent of a fantasy football zombie apocalypse. They simply march on and cause everyone anxiety. This season version of Prime Time is perhaps his best yet. Having won 5 of his last six games, PT is peaking at the right time. With a 140 point performance in week 12, Prime also showcased that the squad still has a high ceiling that can tango with anyone. That's what we like to see.

Oh where is Hartan. Where could he be?

We've talked about a team having four studs, and PT fits the bill: Ryan, Julio, Murray, Howard(stud potential). Add to the fact that PT sits one win away from the finals, and we feel like it should almost be given that he get there. Ara is a season manager, one that doesn't make mistakes too often. We would be surprised if his starting roster didn't max out his weekly potential. Given the way this year has gone, we expect the unexpected, but not so with PT. This team didn't win 9 games by luck. 

History is also working in Prime's favor. Over the past 10 years, 3 of the champions of the AFFL have come from being the 2 seed. Along with the sixth seed, it has produced the most AFFL champions than from any other playoff position.

Perhaps the biggest factor playing in PT's favor is the baby karma he produced before the season started. Being in the labor room and drafting his team while his first born was entering this world gives Ara the kind of karma managers only dream of. It's no coincidence that this team has shot to the top from day 1, and its not surprising that things have gone their way week in and week out. Unless someone has twins soon, it's going to be hard to stop this team from AFFL destiny.

Ara's worse nightmare

The Case against Crime Time

Two words: Julio Jones. That toe is going to be on PT's mind all off-season. Without Julio, this team transforms intoa very average team, with a ceiling far lower than other squads. PT needs Julio to play and be effective. Case and point, in the one game he didn't perform, Week 13, Prime put up an anemic 91 points. Ouch. His only sub 100 point total of the season.

The other aspect working against Prime is the reliance on Rb's that are not exactly match-up proof. Week 15 has Howard playing Green Bay, and Doug Martin playing Dallas. Match-ups can do this squad in quickly, especially without Julio (and no the Matt Barkley to Alshon Jeffery train isn't getting us excited yet).

Lastly, it is simply a fact that Prime Time has failed to win the big game. Of the teams in the post-season, Prime is the only one that has made the finals and lost all three times. Is it the pressure of the moment that gets to the team? Is it bad luck? There seems to be a monkey on the back of this squad and if one of the storied AFFL teams can't win a title this year, that monkey is going to be a Gorilla for years to come. Will the pressure break this squad?

HBK Shant Michaels - Shant

• 1st seed
• 5 game streak of 130+, with 140 twice and 150
• Three game win streak to end season, beating 2 playoff teams
• Hasn't made it past the semi's

The Case for HBK

One of the most explosive teams all season long, HBK has managed to stay in first place for nearly the entire season. While the team has fumbled at times to be consistent, there hasn't been a higher producing team for consecutive weeks than HBK. A run of 130+ points for 5 straight weeks showcased the sustained power of the squad, and it's that kind of production that can win it all for the Michaels.

With the bye on his side, HBK will only need to win two games in order to be enshrined in AFFL championship lore, and with the potential of facing an inexperienced team in Vosgee and Shabam, his odds are very good. The roster is potent, with weekly dominance by David Johnson. Brees and Thomas are a great connection and sprinkle in a little Greg Olsen, and you have the four ingredients for success.

The future Mr. & Mrs. HBK Shant Michaels

Let's not forget that, like Diddy, HBK got engaged this year. Again, engagements have not typically lead to a big boost in the post-season, however, everything helps.

There is a reason that HBK is the number 1 overall seed and is the favorite to win it all. HBK has made the right moves all year long, picking up players like Mike Thomas, and drafting David Johnson a year early. This team could be ready to take the next step that they have trying to take for too long. The semi-finals have been this teams cap. They seem ready to add a new level to their franchises history.

The Case against Mr. Shant

Aj Green is not healthy. We repeat. Aj Green is not healthy. Losing a 30 point producer right before the playoffs is a blow that is difficult to rebound from for any team, and could be the reason HBK doesn't make the final game. The effect of Green's loss is evident in the point totals HBK put up to end the season: Since week 8 -  90, 107, 100, 100, 147, 110. Those wins seem a little suspect when looking at these point totals. Can HBK really expect Cobb, Garcon, and Hill to do enough to put up 130+? We doubt it.

Adding to the trouble are the match-ups that HBK has week 15. Brees and Thomas are at Arizona, where the Cardinal defense has capped production of quarterbacks all year long. While the rest of the squad has plus match-ups, we saw in week 13 what a dud game from Brees does to this team. It will be tough for HBK to meet high point totals of opponents if that is the way the match-up will go.

Lastly, it seems that every time HBK is in the semi's, something unforeseen happens. A blizzard. An injury. Can he overcome the unknown? It's been a theme of this squad for some time, and it's no different this year. The final is so close, but always, far away. We shall see if HBK can overcome

Prediction

So which team will be holding their own come week 16. Will we have a new team to don as the champion, or will Hartan become the third AFFL team to win back-to-back titles? The answer is.. (Find out below)

Round 1

Shabam Shadiq vs Vosgereechee Gyank

Winner: Shabam Shadiq

Too much good things going for Shabam right now to pick against 'em. Sorry Gyank. It was a great run.

Hartan vs BDiddy

Winner: Hartan

Double engagement power is strong, but Hartan has a leg up on the match-up already. Big Ben will lead the charge.

Round 2

Prime Time vs Shabam Shadiq

Winner: Shabam Shadiq

We don't like the match-up for Prime Time, as Winston and Evans will be lighting up the Dallas night. No shot if Julio isn't 100%

HBK vs Hartan

Winner: Hartan

Too many injuries on the HBK front for us to feel good about picking him. Hartan will keep the smack talk going to their second finals trip.

Final

Hartan vs Shabam Shadiq

In a finals match-up that will light-up the AFFL what's app..

Winner and Champion

SHabam SHadiq

Good luck everyone!