AFFL Auction Draft Preview: Tend to the Tendencies

Its the best time of year once again. The time of year where everyone gathers around a table and bids fake money to buy real players to form their fake football team and win a real trophy. Ah the joy of late August is upon us, and with it comes the usual strategies of the 12 angry men who have occupied the chairs for the past 12 years. Each one has their own system that has been honed to perfection or imperfection for some, and will look to execute that strategy once again on Saturday Aug 18th at this years AFFL draft. While the draft is completely unpredictable and a beast onto its own, there are many themes that run very common in the way a manager has drafted in years past. Knowing a manager's tendencies can help you maneuver through the fray and target specific players at specific times. If you don't know the players in the league and how they draft, then you are going into the Auction half-blind and hoping that someone doesn't poke your eye out.

Managers can be categorized in a variety of ways, but we're gonna focus on grouping them into four categories: Wait on QB, Heavy RB, Mid-Tier Mediocrity, Safe Spaces vs Risk/Reward. These tendencies are often the focal point of most managers strategies and can be a clue as to formulating just what the essence of their draft strategy is. And often times, one leads to the adoption of the other.

With that being said, lets group some of the managers into these categories and play this thing out.

WAIT ON QB GROUP

Atomic Bomba, Cobra Kai, HBK Shant Michaels, Shabam Shadiq

It's no secret that waiting on QB is a long used strategy in fantasy, and has grown in popularity as the league has become saturated with great quarterback play. With more high quality throwers in the backfield, many fantasy teams have elected to pass on the position until the mid to later rounds. When we say that managers "wait on QB" that typically mean they won't look to draft their starting QB until after they have loaded up at the other positions. This typically is around Round 7-10 or later. In an Auction, this would equate to $1-$4 for QB. When doing so, these managers would often elect to draft two quarterbacks in these rounds and play match-ups through the season.

Since 2011, every team has fallen into these categories at least once, but only four teams have done it three or more times: Atomic Bomba, Cobra Kai, HBK Shant Michaels, Shabam Shadiq.  Bomba has elected to wait on QB the most, with Cobra and Shabam a close second. Come Saturday, we can almost assure that one of these teams will be targeting their starting QB late in the draft, or opting to play match-ups all season long. While the strategy is popular, it isn't without its pitfalls. Managers who choose unwisely will be forced with weekly headaches and loss that could have been mitigated with a "set-it and forget-it" QB. None-the-less our money is on these teams holding out for their signal caller until the price becomes too good to do so.

HEAVY RB

Prime Time, Atomic Bomba, Awesomeness, Vosgee Gyank

Over the course of 7 years, almost all teams have drafted either 5-6 Rbs on a team at some point or another. This typically is the norm. However, four teams have managed to skew their draft rosters in favor of the RB by drafting 7 or more RBs. Prime Time leads the field, having done this at least three times in the last seven drafts. Bomba, Awesomeness, and Vosgee have each had one season where they managed the feat. What should be gained from this is insight into to the decision making of where these managers like to make their 50/50 decisions. We may be able to conclude that when it comes down to deciding between a WR/2nd TE or RB, Prime Time will more often than not lean RB. This information can be used during the draft when looking at the teams remaining picks. If the team has drafted WRs and QBs early on, there is a good chance that they are waiting on a run of RBs to come. 

One caveat should be noted, keepers have could change the trajectory of these decisions slightly. Prime Time enters into the draft with two possible keepers at RB. Most would think that he would focus his energy on Wide Reciever, being that he is set at RB. While this may be a valid point, we can't rule out the prior draft tendency to "load-up on a position." Can Prime Time avoid over drafting running backs? We shall find out.

MID-TIER MEDIOCRITY

Jaj Cousteau, Grabbers United, Awesomeness, HBK Shant Michaels, BDiddy, Magnum Sev.i, Vosgee Gyank

Every year, managers focus on guys in the middle rounds that would outplay their draft position. These are the position receivers, the guys who won't wow you with big booms, but are the steady Eddie's of the fantasy world. More often than not, these players need to be owned for depth and plug-in plays during bye weeks in order to keep your team afloat. THey are also the group of guys that has a bunch of players that nobody wants. Mid-Tier players are like the spice of your roster: Sprinkle in few, and things keep cooking. Have too many, and you'll ruin the soup. These are the guys that can keep your floor high, but also lower your ceiling. Without properly diversifying your portfolio, you can end up with a roster full of mediocre players.

For this group, we only analyzed the last two drafts and considered the previous five. Over the last two seasons, there were six teams whose drafts fell apart due to too many mid-tier players. For example, In 2017, HBK Shant Michaels drafted a WR core of Michael Crabtree, Devonte Parker, Chris Hogan, Tyrell Williams, Eric Decker, and Zay Jones to complement Michael Thomas. Yikes. Those are pretty much all the same person at their best, and this lack of upside WRs was evident in the team putting up less than 90 points 9 times in 2017. Granted, David Johnson's injury was a big blow, however, a more diversified WR core could have helped.

The same could be said for Jaj Cousteau. Last season, Jaj took Brandin Cooks as his top WR, but then managed to complement him with Marvin Jones, Jameson Crowder and a dream. This may have been fine if the team didn't lean on an RB trio of Ameer abdullah, Theo Riddick, and Billal Powell. They are pretty much the RB versions of the WRs that he drafted.

Whether the managers above can break the mold and diversify their portfolio enough remains to be seen, but one thing is clear, getting stuck with a bunch of mid-tier mediocrity isn't going to help win any titles.

SAFE SPACES vs RISK REWARD

BDiddy, Shabam Shadiq, Hartan, Awesomeness, Jaj Cousteau

Every team has a limit as to just how crazy they will get when they draft players. Many managers jump on the latest hype bandwagon and draft the player that everyone is talking up. Likewise, other managers hardly ever venture from the tried and true.

This category focuses on the managers whom struggle the most from breaking from either drafting to safe, or drafting too risky. How can we tell? We looked at the past four drafts and analyzed the picks made and resulting busts or lack their of. We also considered injury to players drafted. For the most part, these four managers often times ventured into the great wide open with either a team that was too prone to injury/busts, or one that was consistently capped with little upside.

BDiddy perhaps exemplifies this category with the drafting of Amari Cooper and Terrell Pryor. For the past few seasons, Diddy has managed to draft a few big busts and players succumbing to injury. By no means does mean that their teams were bad. Case and point, the team finished 3rd overall despite losing Keenan Allen. But it does showcase the core essence of the BDiddy franchise, one that buys the hype on players. Furthermore, they seem to have a knack of throwing injury history to the wind, ala Jordan Reed. Of all the teams in the AFFL, they battle between a safe space player and risk/reward player the most, and often times lose out on the battle.

Hartan is another team that swings from one extreme to another. They use to be one of the most conservative teams in the AFFL, however the Auction may have brought out their aggressive side. Opting for a boom-or-bust strategy, Hartan blew their money on two key players last season ODBJ ($66) and Mike Evans ($68). With all that investment they got back an bust in Evans, and a shortened season in ODBJ. With too much risk invested last season, could Hartan pull back to the other extreme this season?

If we were to take away something from this group, it is that they may be the ones that are likely to go over-the-top on a player they really like, or not consider injury history as much when drafting a player. We'd expect a manager from this group to be one of the ones that lead the charge in a "boom or bust" sort of way.

The OC compromise: Santa fe springs and Apelinc. Win 2018 Draft Hosting Bid

After weeks of submissions, Santa Fe springs has emerged as the location for the 2018 Affl draft which will be held on Saturday August 18th at Apelinc head quarters. The winning bid was submitted by apel inc owner Shant Apelian and was laced with incentives, including carne asada taco service as well as preferrential seating and bottle service for the current champ the Atomic Bomba. 

Per Affl rules, the bomba was given the option of choosing this years venue. He whittled the list down to four possible cities: pasadena, glendale, tustin, and the eventual winner santa fe springs. The bomba struggled with his choice as there was clamoring  from Prima Time owner Ara to have the draft in Orange County. Bomba owner Raffi said he wanted to find a venue that would be agreeable to all teams, but just couldnt bring himself to agreeing to terms with the lone manager who openly campaigns for the removal of the commissioner. 

"I knew that orange county probably wont host the draft for a long time since the draft is selected by the Affl champion and, well, you can put two-and- two together, but I just couldnt go all in, " said Raffi during his 2 hr conference call with reporters. "Santa fe springs was a perfect compromise. It was offered by an oc manager. It its a great location. Plus, Hbk really did a nice job on adding some perks to the experience."

The Apelinc venue will mark the first time the draft has been held in a warehouse. The draft will take place around one of the long conference tables at the headquarters, and will have premier carne asada taco service for he teams. The Current affl champion will also get preferred parking and seating, along with to table service for all food and beverages. Rumors have swirled that hbk may incorporate female dancers and a dj at the draft,  but those rumors have not been confirmed. 

2017 AFFL Champion: The Atomic Bomba

After an intense season of smack talk and close calls among it's 12 team participants, the AFFL crowned its 2017 champion on Monday afternoon. The Atomic Bomba held off a fierce Cobra Kai by a final score of 105.70 to 93.26 to achieve the illustrious crown. It becomes the teams 4th title, the most of any franchise in the league.

"We feel blessed to have achieved AFFL nirvana, and hold of a great team in Cobra Kai," manager Raffi Lalazarian said as he was doused in champagne. "There was a lot of hard work put in over the year, and it's great to reap those rewards."

The Bomba managed his team well, gambling on zeke and hitting a homerun with draft picks Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. In a league where it's survival of the luckiest, the team managed to survive 5 monday night miracles,  4 of which had the team down going into Monday night with long odds of victory. 

Cobra Kai did a great job managing his team to a 2nd place finish. The team squeaked into the playoffs and managed to survive the first round with a last second comeback to win by just a few points. He then managed to take down team Awesomeness who many thought was this years best team. Ultimately, taking down two lalazarian's in one year seemed to be a little too much. 

Awesomeness rounds off the top 3 with a 3rd place victory over Prime Time. The team that many thought would finish in 1st, finishes in 3rd, and suffered late because of the injury to Antonio Brown. Them are the breaks as they say.

In honor of the champion, the ceremonial Slide show lives below. Enjoy.

Commissioner Back! Lalazarian accepts Lifetime Barhantes pass and Zankou Thursdays to Return as Commissioner of AFFL. Frank Samian pays Co-manager $1 Fee to save Teams from 'Wrath of Ara.'

Reports said that Commissioner Lalazarian partied with AP during his week off.

After a 1.5 week hiatus, Commissioner Lalazarian accepted an extension to his contract to return as AFFL Commissioner for the next 5 years. Details of the extension emerged late Tuesday evening with reports that Lalazarian will indeed get a lifetime Barahantes pass and free Zankou on Thursdays. He will also get a prive Uber driver named Vazmig to take him to all AFFL functions. Funds for the perks will be taken out of the AFFL budget.

The move comes on the heels on yet another another controversial ploy of power by acting commissioner Ara Malikian. Malikian locked all teams from any league activity until a $1 tax for each co-manager was paid. In response to the bullying, co-managers reacted by threatening to egg Ara's house as they 'know where he lives.'  The back-and-forth went on all afternoon, until Frank Samian, head of AFFL Operations decided to put an end to the bickering.

"I don't give a shit about $4," said Samian as he cleaned up the back of his '96 newly restored Peugeot . "I'd give him double that if he'd just shut-up for a minute."

Friends close to Samian believe that the acting Commissioner had out stayed his welcome when he began throwing his weight around, forgive the pun. Those close to Samian claim the $4 fee was a way of taking power back into the league office. Malikian seemed to be enjoying his time at the top too much. Ironically, the $4 was $1 short, as Samian did not know that Tiggy is part of a tri-manager team with BDiddy. As a result, BDiddy is still locked from activities until somebody pays a buck for Tiggy. Baret and Mike are said to still be debating about paying the fee.

Still, Malikian did not run the league into the ground and did fairly well dealing with issues as they cropped up. He did manage to get Awesomeness back into the whats app chatroom after a 6 year hiatus, something Commissioner Lalazarian was unable to do. Could he serve as Commissioenr in the future? Early in the season that would be unthinkable, but now, anything is possible.

Update - AFFL Commish Extension: Lalazarian asking for Lifetime Barahantes Pass, free Zankou on Thursday; Awesomeness Comments on Whatsapp for 1st time in 6 years.

After nearly a week of Commissioner Ara at the head of the AFFL, the league is by some miracle still intact. After fining co-managers, locking out the league from making any moves, and threatening the expulsion of Vosgee Gyank owner Mardig should he finish last, Malikian broke ground on Thursday by negotiating the successful return of Awesomeness to the AFFL Whatsapp chat room.

Awesomeness owner David broke his 6 year silence with a comedic text message to the league  "Am I in the right place?" He went on  to give support for Ara as co-commissioner moving forward, though no formal vote or processing is expected. He also asked if anyone was interested in Fournette, not knowing that the trade deadline ended a week ago.

"That's what I do, I make deals," a proud Malikian said during a break from his thursday swim session. " These are the kinds of things that happen when you put me in charge. Things happen."

However, the temporary commissioner status of Ara has prompted the league to discuss the return of Lalazarian. Early Thursday morning had reports the Commissioner was in good spirits and closely monitoring the activities of the AFFL. Managers from the league had already contacted him about a return, but he refused to go so far as to give a definite date, stating only that "the time will be right when the time is right." 

Lalazarian did release a list of requests that he wishes the league to fulfill during any talks of an extension. Key requests include a "lifetime pass to all Barahentes' in Glendale," and free Zankou on Thursdays. The list also includes private use of an Uber driver to and from league events, as well as $50 yearly fee.  Owners have been said to be mulling the list.  Early reports say that the demands would be met, and Lalazarian will be back in charge of the AFFL by the playoffs. We'll keep you posted.