AFFL Auction Draft Preview: Tend to the Tendencies

Its the best time of year once again. The time of year where everyone gathers around a table and bids fake money to buy real players to form their fake football team and win a real trophy. Ah the joy of late August is upon us, and with it comes the usual strategies of the 12 angry men who have occupied the chairs for the past 12 years. Each one has their own system that has been honed to perfection or imperfection for some, and will look to execute that strategy once again on Saturday Aug 18th at this years AFFL draft. While the draft is completely unpredictable and a beast onto its own, there are many themes that run very common in the way a manager has drafted in years past. Knowing a manager's tendencies can help you maneuver through the fray and target specific players at specific times. If you don't know the players in the league and how they draft, then you are going into the Auction half-blind and hoping that someone doesn't poke your eye out.

Managers can be categorized in a variety of ways, but we're gonna focus on grouping them into four categories: Wait on QB, Heavy RB, Mid-Tier Mediocrity, Safe Spaces vs Risk/Reward. These tendencies are often the focal point of most managers strategies and can be a clue as to formulating just what the essence of their draft strategy is. And often times, one leads to the adoption of the other.

With that being said, lets group some of the managers into these categories and play this thing out.

WAIT ON QB GROUP

Atomic Bomba, Cobra Kai, HBK Shant Michaels, Shabam Shadiq

It's no secret that waiting on QB is a long used strategy in fantasy, and has grown in popularity as the league has become saturated with great quarterback play. With more high quality throwers in the backfield, many fantasy teams have elected to pass on the position until the mid to later rounds. When we say that managers "wait on QB" that typically mean they won't look to draft their starting QB until after they have loaded up at the other positions. This typically is around Round 7-10 or later. In an Auction, this would equate to $1-$4 for QB. When doing so, these managers would often elect to draft two quarterbacks in these rounds and play match-ups through the season.

Since 2011, every team has fallen into these categories at least once, but only four teams have done it three or more times: Atomic Bomba, Cobra Kai, HBK Shant Michaels, Shabam Shadiq.  Bomba has elected to wait on QB the most, with Cobra and Shabam a close second. Come Saturday, we can almost assure that one of these teams will be targeting their starting QB late in the draft, or opting to play match-ups all season long. While the strategy is popular, it isn't without its pitfalls. Managers who choose unwisely will be forced with weekly headaches and loss that could have been mitigated with a "set-it and forget-it" QB. None-the-less our money is on these teams holding out for their signal caller until the price becomes too good to do so.

HEAVY RB

Prime Time, Atomic Bomba, Awesomeness, Vosgee Gyank

Over the course of 7 years, almost all teams have drafted either 5-6 Rbs on a team at some point or another. This typically is the norm. However, four teams have managed to skew their draft rosters in favor of the RB by drafting 7 or more RBs. Prime Time leads the field, having done this at least three times in the last seven drafts. Bomba, Awesomeness, and Vosgee have each had one season where they managed the feat. What should be gained from this is insight into to the decision making of where these managers like to make their 50/50 decisions. We may be able to conclude that when it comes down to deciding between a WR/2nd TE or RB, Prime Time will more often than not lean RB. This information can be used during the draft when looking at the teams remaining picks. If the team has drafted WRs and QBs early on, there is a good chance that they are waiting on a run of RBs to come. 

One caveat should be noted, keepers have could change the trajectory of these decisions slightly. Prime Time enters into the draft with two possible keepers at RB. Most would think that he would focus his energy on Wide Reciever, being that he is set at RB. While this may be a valid point, we can't rule out the prior draft tendency to "load-up on a position." Can Prime Time avoid over drafting running backs? We shall find out.

MID-TIER MEDIOCRITY

Jaj Cousteau, Grabbers United, Awesomeness, HBK Shant Michaels, BDiddy, Magnum Sev.i, Vosgee Gyank

Every year, managers focus on guys in the middle rounds that would outplay their draft position. These are the position receivers, the guys who won't wow you with big booms, but are the steady Eddie's of the fantasy world. More often than not, these players need to be owned for depth and plug-in plays during bye weeks in order to keep your team afloat. THey are also the group of guys that has a bunch of players that nobody wants. Mid-Tier players are like the spice of your roster: Sprinkle in few, and things keep cooking. Have too many, and you'll ruin the soup. These are the guys that can keep your floor high, but also lower your ceiling. Without properly diversifying your portfolio, you can end up with a roster full of mediocre players.

For this group, we only analyzed the last two drafts and considered the previous five. Over the last two seasons, there were six teams whose drafts fell apart due to too many mid-tier players. For example, In 2017, HBK Shant Michaels drafted a WR core of Michael Crabtree, Devonte Parker, Chris Hogan, Tyrell Williams, Eric Decker, and Zay Jones to complement Michael Thomas. Yikes. Those are pretty much all the same person at their best, and this lack of upside WRs was evident in the team putting up less than 90 points 9 times in 2017. Granted, David Johnson's injury was a big blow, however, a more diversified WR core could have helped.

The same could be said for Jaj Cousteau. Last season, Jaj took Brandin Cooks as his top WR, but then managed to complement him with Marvin Jones, Jameson Crowder and a dream. This may have been fine if the team didn't lean on an RB trio of Ameer abdullah, Theo Riddick, and Billal Powell. They are pretty much the RB versions of the WRs that he drafted.

Whether the managers above can break the mold and diversify their portfolio enough remains to be seen, but one thing is clear, getting stuck with a bunch of mid-tier mediocrity isn't going to help win any titles.

SAFE SPACES vs RISK REWARD

BDiddy, Shabam Shadiq, Hartan, Awesomeness, Jaj Cousteau

Every team has a limit as to just how crazy they will get when they draft players. Many managers jump on the latest hype bandwagon and draft the player that everyone is talking up. Likewise, other managers hardly ever venture from the tried and true.

This category focuses on the managers whom struggle the most from breaking from either drafting to safe, or drafting too risky. How can we tell? We looked at the past four drafts and analyzed the picks made and resulting busts or lack their of. We also considered injury to players drafted. For the most part, these four managers often times ventured into the great wide open with either a team that was too prone to injury/busts, or one that was consistently capped with little upside.

BDiddy perhaps exemplifies this category with the drafting of Amari Cooper and Terrell Pryor. For the past few seasons, Diddy has managed to draft a few big busts and players succumbing to injury. By no means does mean that their teams were bad. Case and point, the team finished 3rd overall despite losing Keenan Allen. But it does showcase the core essence of the BDiddy franchise, one that buys the hype on players. Furthermore, they seem to have a knack of throwing injury history to the wind, ala Jordan Reed. Of all the teams in the AFFL, they battle between a safe space player and risk/reward player the most, and often times lose out on the battle.

Hartan is another team that swings from one extreme to another. They use to be one of the most conservative teams in the AFFL, however the Auction may have brought out their aggressive side. Opting for a boom-or-bust strategy, Hartan blew their money on two key players last season ODBJ ($66) and Mike Evans ($68). With all that investment they got back an bust in Evans, and a shortened season in ODBJ. With too much risk invested last season, could Hartan pull back to the other extreme this season?

If we were to take away something from this group, it is that they may be the ones that are likely to go over-the-top on a player they really like, or not consider injury history as much when drafting a player. We'd expect a manager from this group to be one of the ones that lead the charge in a "boom or bust" sort of way.