AFFL Mega Playoff Preview '15
Raffi Lalazarian
After thirteen long weeks of battle, the fantasy football gods have chosen the six teams that will duke it out for the 2015 AFFL crown: Hartan, Grabbers United, Awesomeness, Jaj Cousteau, Cobra Kai, and Atomic Bomba. Are these the six best teams in the AFFL? Many argue that HBK Shant Michaels and perhaps even BDiddy deserve to be in the playoffs as they finished the year white hot. HBK managed to trade his way back from a 1-5 start to narrowly missing out on the sixth seed. It just wasn't meant to be. That being said, these six teams were for the most part consistently in the top half of the standings for the majority of the year and are worthy of their playoff position. There are plenty of story lines to get excited about. Lets lay those out first.
Jaj Cousteau goes for Back-to-Back Titles
It has been done twice before, the last time by the Atomic Bomba ('11,'12), but Jaj Cousteau can become the third back-to-back champion of the AFFL. The Jajman has done an excellent job managing his team once again, finishing the year with an 8-5 record and 4th overall seed. Where others zig, he zags, and his reliance on non-sexy names has paid off huge, as Blake Bortles, Allen Hurns, and others have helped keep the team afloat after the loss of Jamaal Charles. However, of the former back-to-back title winners, only one team, Atomic Bomba ('12), has won the title being anything less than a 2 seed. Jaj will have to go through a dangerous Bomba squad and the top seed Hartan in order to get to the final. The road is not easy, and with tough match-ups to certain key players, the going could get rough. Will Jaj climax twice two years in a row? Answer is cumming.
The Return of Two Lalazarian Managed Teams in the Playoffs.
From 2008 to 2012, a Lalazarian managed team won the AFFL title. It is remarkable to believe that for five straight years this fact held true. Now, for the first time since 2009, the Atomic Bomba and Awesomeness have both made the post-season and have a chance to meet in the final once again. Should that happen, it would put both franchises in a unique place, as having been the only two teams to meet in the final three times. With six titles between the two of them, there is no question that these two are among the favorites to end up with their name etched into the AFFL trophy. Awesomeness has been steadily climbing the power ranks for the past several weeks, and has a formidable team that is centered around AP, Hopkins and Rodgers. The Atomic Bomba hasn't been as fortunate, as he has dropped two of his last three games and saw the play of Dez Bryant and Randall Cobb completely fall off. However, the Bomba karma is still strong, as evidence of his Monday night Miracle to get a must-have week 13 win. Both these squads have a ton of experience and could peak at the right time to reclaim the AFFL crown as their own.
Grabbers Looks to Beat Entire Field of Champions to claim his first Title.
Yes, the postseason is loaded with the cream-of-the-crop of the AFFL when it comes to championships. Five of the six teams represent the entire list of AFFL champions since the leagues inception: Atomic Bomba ('06,'08,'11,'12), Awesomeness ('09,'10), Hartan ('07), Cobra Kai ('13), Jaj Cousteau ('14). The exception is of course Grabbers United, who will no doubt be a fan favorite to upset the field of title winners to capture his first AFFL crown. And he's got a good a shot as any. Already in the semi-finals with a bye, Grabbers needs only one victory to reach the championship. The last time the team was this far along in the playoffs was 2012, where they finished in 2nd place, losing to the Bomba in the title game. Grabbers has come a long way, and has manged exceptionally well. The team may not be the most explosive, but with Cam and Olsen producing at a high level (and with a favorable schedule) the team has a great shot of outlasting a field of AFFL Champions to claim one of his own. What a story that would be.
Hartan Trying to Erase "10 team Title Astrisk" from Record
They have made the playoffs four years straight, finishing fourth three times and sixth last year. They are one of the more consistent franchises in the AFFL, and yes they have an AFFL title. So how come Hartan isn't regarded as elite? One factor working against them is that the title they won was the one season the AFFL was a ten team league. Many pundits put an astrisk next to this title because it was before the 12-team format that the AFFL now functions under. Since the change in '08, Hartan has never placed in the top 3, leaving many to label the 2007 title a fluke. After losing in the semifinals from 2011-2013, Hartan desperately needs to make it to the Championship game and get over the hump. They have never been the number one overall seed, and should they fail to win in their semi-final match-up, all the heavy smack talk that they have laid on the league will come back on 'em ten fold. Hows that for pressure brotha'?
The Answer to the Cobra Kai Philosophy "Never Say Die to a Trade."
After a season long trading excursion by Cobra Kai, the team has put together a roster that is theoretically built for the playoffs. Accumulating players with favorable week 14-16 schedules, the Kai opted to emphasize match-up based planning in order to go after his second title. Now we will finally get the answer to whether this strategy paid off or not. Could the loss of Gronkowski be the sign of a collapse set to come? Did he make one trade too many? Will the heavy investment in the Steelers offense comeback to bite him? It will be fascinating to watch team Cobra go into the week 14 battle with Awesomeness knowing that three starters will be affected by one game. Ultimately, the league will be waiting anxiously to find out if the match-up based philosophy paid off, or if Kai outsmarted himself taking three steps too many.
These story-lines make for an intriguing playoffs, but they don't do anything in telling us who is most primed to breakout as the top team in 2015. To determine that, we have to look at the cold, hard facts of which team is peaking at the right time, which team is deep enough, and most importantly, which team has the most luck to carry them through. After all, this is survival of the luckiest, and the team with the most four-leaf clovers up their rear will be crowned champion in late December. So lets get to it.
How high is that Ceiling?
To win the AFFL title, you'll need to put up a plethora of points. The days of eeking out victories by barely clearing a 100 points are gone. Scores are on average at a higher clip these days than they were in years before. It use to be said that a 130 point total was a great day. Now, 140s are norms. With the point-a-palooza going around the AFFL like whooping cough, this years crop of six teams will need to make like Rappin' Fortay and "Tear the roof off the Motha" if they wish to remain a playa in the "Players Club." Long live 90's rap.
Of the six teams in the post-season, five have posted highs of 150 points or more at least once this year. If a team were to put up that amount in the playoffs, it would most certainly garnish them a win.
On the flip-side, a low total in any playoff game would be catastrophic. While there were many weeks where teams had a host of players on bye or injured, we still must consider just how low a team went during the year to see what their floor is. A week with a low point total isn't detrimental. Multiple low weeks is. Furthermore, it's important to see when these low weeks occurred. An 85 point week during the third week of the season is not nearly as bad as one week 12.
Below is a chart highlighting the highs and lows of all the playoff teams during the year, taking into consideration the weeks that those highs and low occurred as well.
There are two things that jump out right away. The first, Awesomeness had a hell-of-a-week scoring 188 points. Two, Grabbers has failed to score 100 points five times and has a bye. Sometimes life isn't fair.
As far as high ceilings go, nobody seems to be higher than Awesomeness, who topped off at 188, but has five other weeks of 135+, three of which were in the second half of the season. If AP, Rodgers, and Hopkins can manage to get on the same page, this team will be difficult to stop.
Hartan managed the second highest total of the season, but has only been able to clear 135 points one other week. With four other weeks where the team failed to put up 100 points, this team could may not have the offensive explosion to compete a the treetops like the other teams. What is more concerning for Hartan is that three of the four low total weeks came weeks 10,11,12. This team isn't peaking at the right time.
The same could be said of Bomba. Sneaking into the playoffs by the luck of Dez bryant can't mask the painful truth that the squad has scored below a 100 points in three of the past five weeks. The loss of Edelman could be a major factor in this down swing and something the team wont be able to overcome.
Two teams that seem to be peaking at the right time are Cobra and Grabbers. Cobra has managed his highest point total during the last two weeks of the regular season and Grabbers finished out weeks 12 and 13 with monstrous outings. Every season its the team that is peaking at the end that runs the table, and both these squads have a lot of good things going for them.
Lastly, Jaj, the former Champ, sits square in the middle of the ranks. His 153 point high week isn't too shabby, and he only has two low weeks during the second half of the season. Cousteau has a history of being an outlier when it comes to any data so we mustn't hold the Jajman to any sort of standards. He's his own enigma and there is no figuring out exactly what any thing means when it comes to his fantasy performances.
Conclusion
Cobra and Awesomeness look to be the two teams that have the best odds at putting up a huge amount of points, along with Grabbers for his late peak. Bomba, Hartan are lower on the spectrum and will need to make the right roster calls in order to maximize points. Jaj can go either way.
- Awesomeness ++++
- Cobra +++
- Grabbers +++
- Jaj Cousteau ++
- Bomba +
- Hartan +
Injury Impact
Nothing can impact a playoff race like injuries. With the NFL taking more precautions with concussions and blows to the head, any player could be out for the game at any moment, swinging the outcome of a match-up immediately. The healthiest teams in the fantasy post-season are the teams that have the most line-up choices, and thus, have better odds to win any given week.
Below is a chart of significant injuries to teams and their possible replacements.
Here, we notice that Cobra Kai and Hartan are the hardest hit when it comes to injuries. It could be argued that the loss of Ingram is a very big blow to Hartan, as the he ha been a rock solid option all year long. Cobra will get Gronk back eventually, however, in what shape is up in the air. With Will Tye as the only replacemant for Gronk, Cobra will be at a loss of points should he sit a week. Hartan has capable replacements. Jaj will be getting Eiffert back this week.
For the most part, most teams are healthy going into the post-season and won't be affective too severly. It must also be mentioned that some players have a potential of returning from long absences to help teams out, namely Edelman for Bomba, and Luck for Grabbers.
Injuries only test a teams depth as teams go deeper into the playoffs. All teams seem deep enough to handle the losses of positional players for the most part. The one benefit of fantasy football this year, there are plenty of WRs to choose from.
Conclusion
Cobra and Hartan could be the hardest hit by the injury bug. Others, not so much.
- Cobra Kai ++++
- Hartan ++++
- Jaj ++
- Bomba
- Grabbers
- Awesomeness
So who is going to win this years AFFL title? Here is the case for every team followed by the final predictions for the playoffs.
Jaj Cousteau
Regular Season record: 8-5
Last three - 1-2
Why he'll win it all: Jaj Cousteau packs a big whallop at the WR position with Antonio Brown. Capable of single-handedly winning match-ups by himeself, Brown has a very favorable week 14 and 16 match-up, with one tough one against Denver. The Bortles and Hurns combo could also be a boon for the Jaj meister. Bortles is coming off back to back huge weeks, and faces a suspect Indy pass defense week 14, along with a very poor Falcons team week 15. Eiffert is a huge redzone threat for Dalton and has been a top TE all season long. Any week that Eiffert and Brown go off will surely provide a win.
With a top notch defense in Carolina and the above core, Jaj has 150+ potential, making him one of the favorites in the playoffs.
Why he won't win it all: With losses in two of the last three games, Jaj isn't peaking at the right time. What was once a three headed monster at RB, has now turned into somewhat of an enigma. West is caught in a timeshare, Ivory is losing touches to Powell, and Allen has a ridicullously difficult playoff schedule. Without help from the supporting cast of players, Jaj may not have enough of a complete roster to deal with a team that is loaded at RB and WR. It seems that things break Jaj's way, but an injury to Brown, Eiffert or Bortles will surely put pressure on the RBs to produce, and they may not be able to.
Prediction: Eliminated 1st Round by Bomba
Awesomeness
Regular Season record: 8-5
Last three: 2-1
Why he'll win it all: Simply put, the team is dangerous. Rodgers, Hopkins and AP are a formidable trio. Hopkins has been an animal on the field and has put up top 5 WR numbers. It is almost a given that he'll be producing on a weekly basis. Rodgers won't be denyed too many weeks, and the week 14 and 15 match-ups are favorable. The supporting cast isn't too shabby either. Gio Bernard is being utilized far more than others give credit. With Rodgers and Reed at TE, Awesomeness has a nice duo to choose from. Djax provides a solid, albeit inconsistent WR option, as does Snead. If they can stay healthy, there is no reason this team can't win 3 games.
70+ points from Hopkins, AP and Rodgers is dueable, which mean so are the finals.
Why he won't win it all: Match-ups. The playoffs are a lot about match-ups, both for players on the roster and on the schedule. Awesomeness has the misfortune of getting both. Bad match-ups for Rodgers and AP during week 16 and 14 respectively will be difficult to overcome. Couple that with a first round match-up against Cobra and a redhot Grabbers team, and Awesomeness could be over his head when it comes to scoring enough points.
Prediction: 1st round exit to Cobra Kai
Cobra Kai
Regular Season record: 7-6
Last three: 1-2
Why he'll win it all: Cobra has crafted his line-up like a chemist in a lab, carefully mixing the right players for the perfect roster. In the process of doing so, the team managed to have three Steelers in the starting roster. Normally, this can be a huge risk, but if a risk like this is to be taken, the Steelers is a great team to do it with. Big Ben has been on fire of late, and the offense as a whole will support plenty of play makers. Cobra has the most direct method of victory, and it hinges on the Steelers play. Should the Pittsburgh offense do what it normally does, this team will be very tough to beat. Oh, and we didn't even mention Calvin Johnson and Gronk. Those guys are great too.
4 studs on the roster gives this team a path to the playoff finale.
Why he won't win it all: For the same reason he will, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Fantasy is a cruel mistress, and when things are suppose to go a certain way, they often times don't. Pittsburgh plays Denver at home, in what could be a weather effected game. Couple that with an offense that will be facing the leagues top defense, and there could be a drought of points awaiting the Cobra Kai. Should he manage to get to that game, Grabbers will anxiously be waiting with his Panther stack in a very favorable match-up. It is difficult to see the Kai escaping that scenario.
Prediction: Semi-final loss to Grabbers.
Hartan
Regular Season record: 9-4
Last three: 1-2
Why he'll win it all: With some questionable decisions to end the regular season, Hartan managed to sneak into the playoffs and straight to the semi-finals by earning the bye with a victory week 16. The roster has some great names on it, Brees, ODBJ, and Todd Gurly to name a few. The team hasn't errupted for a ton of points like others, but have enough upside to do so on any given week. With nice balance across the board and a Drew Brees schedule that just screams big outings, Hartan won't be left out of the race. Should Brees do what the team traded him for, and Gurly return to his early form, this team has enough in the key positions to win two games.
Gurly, the world of victory rests on thee.
Why they won't win it all: Losing Mark Ingram is going to be difficult. Ingram was doing a ton in the Saints offense and was reliable for weekly output. Yes, Shaun Draughn looks to be capable of replacing Ingram, but he's not exactly of the same skill set. Couple that with a difficult week 15 match-up for ODBJ and Todd Gurly and this team may find the point total a bit on the light side. Nothing will hurt more than losing to either Bomba or Jaj in the semi's again. This team had high hopes for a title. Ingram's loss may ruin those hopes.
Prediction: Loss to Bomba in week 15
Atomic Bomba
Regular Season record: 8-5
Last three: 1-2
Why he'll win it all: Every year there is a team that just manages to squeek into the playoffs and runs the table. Last year was Jaj. This year, Bomba takes that title. The luck factor is high with the Bomba, having survived a week 13 war with HBK for the last playoff spot. But make no mistake about it, the Bomba has the roster to put up a fight each week. Palmer has been as steady as they come, and Freeman is a solid weekly RB. Mix in Amendola, John Brown showing up, and the possible return of Edelman, and there is a lot to like on the roster. Denver is also a defense that will give Bomba an advantage a the position during most the weeks. Should all things click for the Bomba, a 150+ outing isn't out of the norm.
Deja Vu all over again? Bomba could be in the finals should Palmer and Freeman carry the roster.
Why he won't win it all: The one thing working against the Bomba is inconsitency. The team hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard the last few weeks, and really hasn't done much in the second half of the season. There really is no telling what this team will do. Furthermore, there is a bit of a concern with the RB position. Freeman has two match-ups with a tough Carolina run def, and Hillman and Murray don't seem like high upside Rb2s. There may not be enough pop at the RB spot to survive down weeks from Wrs.
Prediction: Loss to Grabbers in the finals.
Grabbers United
Regular Season record: 9-4
Last three: 2-1
Why he'll win it all: This team has managed to earn the bye in the Mazoon division in some fashion not understood by many. They have lost players like Luck, seen Rbs rotate throught the year in the starting roster, and managed to win games when scoring 90 points. All these point to one ineviteable truth, Grabbers is a team of destiny. But not everything was simply luck. Grabbers did a superb job managing the roster and trading for the right players. The Cam/Greg Olsen tandum is deadly, and is set-up with a great schedule. McFadden should get enough work to be a solid Rb, and Watkins has been producing big of late.
At the end of the day, we must ask ourselves, which team is most likely to overcome the ailments, injuries, bad match-ups, and overall chaos that could happen at any given week during the post-season? The answer has been Grabbers all year long. We don't see that changing during weeks 14-16
Prediction: Finishes week 16 with a Victory an captures AFFL Title
Round 1 - Bomba defeats Jaj, Cobra defeats Awesomeness
Round 2 - Bomba defeats Hartan, Grabbers defeats Cobra
Final - Grabbers defeats Bomba
Good luck to all the teams.