AFFL Draft Grades: Perception vs Reality

Perception affecting reality. That is what the fantasy draft is all about. Case and point: Zac Stacy. Reports by beat writers have praised Benny Cunningham as the "it" guy in the Rams backfield, and fantasy owners panicked when Cunningham was given the starting nod during the third preseason game. Yet Stacy still sits atop the Rams depth chart and coming off a breakout season. What are we to make of all this? Absolutely nothing.

And that is the case with most of the preseason. Too many managers put too much emphasis on the preseason. For example, the 49ers were outscored in 2011's preseason 51-10. They went on to go 13-3 and make it to the NFC championship. Last year, Zack Sudfield was a monster in the preseason. He was cut by week 2. I can do this for days.

Managers will use the preseason to nit pick a player or offense to death in order to rationalize their opinion on a guy. Anything from a player being an injury risk, to not looking good, to concerns about the team offense as a whole, will all be used to move players up and down their draft boards. Getting into the semantics of why you should or shouldn't take a player  is meaningless. If you like a guy, you'll find reasons to defend taking him. If you don't, you'll find those as well. It is how it is.

Smart managers, however, will take advantage of the perception of players and find values where they can. Great managers will use those picks to help maximize their rosters potential.  Everyone is hyping up Emmanuel Sanders? That's great. Now I can get Terrence Williams a round later. Nobody thinks Oakland is going to have a good offense? Perfect, I'll snag MJD two rounds later. Knowing which smoke screens to avoid and which ones to go after can make your draft a huge success.

Which leads us to evaluating the 2014 AFFL Draft. It's quite impossible to give an accurate assessment of the draft right now, as we are still in full on "perception" mode. Reality will be coming in a few days. Until then, we can evaluate the choices that managers made to maximize their teams potential and mitigate risk where they could. Every player has both risk and reward attached to them, and no roster will be without a soft spot. Good managers alleviate some of the potential concerns they may face during the season by creating depth at positions they see potential problems. Did you draft deep enough at a position to offset any risk of a player being a bust, or getting injured if he's injury prone? Did you draft risky players for potential upside? Do you have players that could be starters come mid-season? It's a tough job, but teams that cover their butts in these areas usually end up playing all the way through week 16.

So with all that said, lets look at the draft and see who truly maximized their rosters to the fullest. This isn't to say that a team is bad or good, but rather whether or not the draft strategy was sound and there is a train of logic that they executed and stayed true to. Again, this is purely about how a manager drafted given the situation they were in and the choices they made.

In essence, let's find out who brought the draft lumber, stayed limber, or just limped into the 2014 season.

Bringing the Lumber

Vosgereechee Gyank

Best picks: Graham (1) Colston (7) Ridley (9), Ivory (13)

Worst: Seattle Def (8), Austin (11)

There is a reason that Vosgee is at the top of the list (yes, I'm just as shocked as you) and it's because of the circumstances he found himself in. With no keepers to speak of, he was at a severe disadvantage when entering the draft. While most teams had already gained an upper hand on the Gyank with late round keepers, he would have to pull off a solid draft in order to be able to stay competitive. Dare we say he did.

Getting a top TE and QB in the first two rounds is nice, but to do so would leave you vulnerable at the other positions, namely RB. What makes Gyank's draft come together is the not so sexy pick of Frank Gore. Getting Bush as an RB1 could work out. He'll have some big games. But by taking Gore, he gives himself stability at the position. And he wasn't done. Taking Ridley and Ivory later adds some upside, further strengthening his roster. Lastly, he didn't suffer too much at the WR spots, targeting an upside pick with DJax, but also getting two possession receivers in Maclin and Colston. The blend of that receiver trio should be good enough weekly to help alleviate a Djax goose egg. The roster is a great blend of balanced players and upside, as well as top flight studs in Graham and Rodgers. Very nice work.

Grade: A-

Hartan

Best Picks: Stafford (4), P. Thomas (5), Joique (K), Hawkins (13)

Worst Picks: Greene (12)

If you want to know how to draft according to your keepers, look no further than Hartan. Having Forte and Joique solidified on their roster, team two-face would have been wise to ignore the Rb position for the most part and focus on the others. That is exactly what they did. They took one RB in their first 8 picks, and bombarded the wide receiver position throughout. With the luxury of not having to focus on RB, Hartan also broke from a tempting strategy to wait on QB and took Stafford early. Adding Vernon Davis in the mid-rounds gave the team strength at all major positions (although we're not as excited for Davis this year). It's exactly how they should have approached the draft.

They weren't perfect however, taking Shonn Greene as your fifth RB late seems a waste, especially when he will probably never be used. However, they stayed true to drafting upside WRs until the end. With a total of seven on the roster, they are not only deep at the position they lacked coming into the draft, but also should have a few gems emerge from the pile in the process. Nicely done.

Grade: A-

Jaj Cousteau

Best Picks:: J. Charles (1), Brown (k), Thomas (k) T. WIlliams (7), Boykin (11)

Worst Picks: Chris Johnson (4)

Jaj began with a great situation and almost screwed it up. Almost. We were worried that once Chris Johnson's name came up in the fourth round that it would be the beginning of a list of players that were wrong for this team. Fortunately, Cousteau caught himself slippin' and righted the ship.

Going into the fourth round with arguably the best three players on any roster, Cousteau should have opted to continue to build with high upside players, like a Cordelle Patterson for example, maximizing the safety net that Jamaal Charles, Demeriyus Thomas and Antonio Brown give him. Instead, investing in a running back in a committee on a bad offense who gives up goal line chances doesn't illicit excitement. You have already lessened the risk of a bust on a risky WR with Thomas and Brown. Take the plunge. Especially if you are going to take a player like Danny Woodhead in the 8th round. Wouldn't expect a huge drop-off from Johnson to Woodhead in your RB2 spot.

But that seems to be the only glaring error that Jaj made. You can argue whether or not Jordan Reed should have been taken over Jordan Cameron, but that is just personal preference. Nabbing Terrence Williams, Foles, Reed, and Charles's handcuff, Cousteau did enough to build on an already strong keeper core. Tis' excellent.

Grade: A-

BDiddy

Best Picks: Patterson (4), Mike Wallace (6), Keenan Allen (k), Bradshaw (12)

Worst Picks: Ray Rice (5), Josh Gordon (15)

It seems like every year this time we have good things to say about Diddy's draft. So far, he hasn't disappointed. Coming into the draft with only Keenan Allen as a keeper and a severely depleted RB position pool to draft from, Diddy would be taking a huge risk avoiding the position as their first pick. Luckily, the board fell their way with Martin falling in their lap in the second round. While Martin could be a potential bust candidate, he gives Diddy viable RB1 potential. Disaster avoided. Where Diddy did very well for himself was the selection of Gerhart in the third. The RB duo of Martin and Gerhart should be strong enough to remain competitive week to week.

They also wisely took a risk/reward player in Patterson in the 4th round. That's what we like to see. Maximizing the safety net value of Keenan Allen. Mike Wallace is a nice third option as well. Two of those three wide-outs should be solid on a weekly basis.

We don't like the Ray Rice pick in the fifth round, as it seemed forced. Why not just wait until later and nab a guy like Steven Jackson, MJD, or even an upside RB in Jeremy Hill to be your #3? If you are going to take an RB, why not a guy like Tate? Or go WR and take E. Sanders? Rice has a lot of downside associated with him. There were better options available at the time, and we think this was a miss.

That said, the line-up has plenty of opportunity to grow, with guys like Justin Hunter and Ahmad Bradshaw stashed for later in the season. Can't do much better than Pitta in the mid rounds. We like what we see.

Grade: A-

Staying Limber

HBK Shant Michaels

Best Picks: Vereen (3), Welker (8), Romo (9),

Worst Picks: Ty Hilton (4), Tate (5)

It wasn't a perfect draft, but HBK did nice job building on two great keepers. When you have Alshon Jeffery for a sixth rounder, and Lacy for a second, you have freedom to do anything you like in the early rounds. With that freedom comes risk in that you could over indulge in one position group, leaving another one waning thin. HBK struck a nice balance and formulated a best of both worlds strategy. Depth at every position, and lots of upside at WR makes the team very well rounded.

However, the draft is not without its faults. We don't back TY Hilton over a guy like Victor Cruz, but that is just a matter of personal preference. The bigger point comes on the Tate selection. A little better planning could have yielded a pick of Cameron in that round, and perhaps a guy like MJD in round 8. Or why not go for the upside of an Emmanual Sanders? Tate comes with a history of injuries, and having someone like that as a third RB over a player that could be your starter at TE may not have been the best move to maximize the roster. We'll see how it plays out.

Welker was a nice value pick and could be a steal if he stays healthy. Benjamiin offers great potential too.

Grade: B+

Atomic Bomba

Best picks: Cruz (4), Matt Ryan (7), Stacy (k), MJD (9)

Worst Picks: Hyde (6 instead of 7th), RG3 (10th)

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The Bomba came into the AFFL Draft with perhaps the best valued keeper in Zac Stacy, and looked to add to that. Having a potential borderline RB1/2 in the 8th round means that the Bomba would have been wise to target the other positions early in the draft. For the most part, he did, building perhaps the deepest WR core in the league with four of his first five picks. Arian Foster comes with a ton of risk, however, with huge upside. If Bomba believes in Stacy, then Foster is a great choice, as he already has mitigate the risk of a bust with an 8th round keeper. Handcuffing Grimes in the 12th further alleviates the potential injury that could occur.

Value was also found in a number of picks. Cruz in the fourth could be a steal, as could MJD in the 9th round. The roster has upside with Sanders, Hyde and Wheaton as well. Not much of an issue with those picks.

Two selections stand out as questionable. The first was an admitted mistake on Bomba's part in taking Hyde in the 6th round and not 7th. Those errors shouldn't happen to a veteran drafter as this one. While it won't make a difference this year, but will if he is kept. The seond was the questionable selection of Rg3 in the 10th. Yes the upside is there, but does Bomba need another QB when he has Ryan? Why not an upside TE like Kelce?

All-in-all, the Atomic one didn't do anything to hurt his championship chances, only help it.

Grade: B+

Prime Time

Best Picks: Ellington (2), Bell (k), Olson (8), A. Williams (11)

Worst Picks: Steven Jackson (6), Jennings (3)

We don't think Ara did anything that severely hurt his teams chances at winning it all this year. In fact, we believe that Prime Time is one of the stronger teams in the league. There is depth at the RB position galore, and Manning can help offset any potential weekly bust plays. Things look good.

Getting Ellington in the second round was great value and could be a huge boon for Prime. Concerns about Levon Bell not getting goal line carries are a bit over blown in our opinion, but Prime did a good job alleviating those concerns. Jennings gives ample depth to the position, and Prime looks to have returned to his RB hoarding ways.

The problem area is the WR position. If this is about mitigating risk in an area group, than Prime may have over compensated for the RB spot while sacrificing his WRs. Fitz should be fine, and perhaps Cooks will come on, but we wonder what the line-up would have looked like if a WR was drafted instead of Jennings. Especially if you are going to take Steven Jackson in the 6th round, which was not only early, but solely done to try and screw the Atomic Bomba. (the Bomba is impervious to these types of tactics).  As it turns out, he missed on Terrence Williams at that pick, another player that would have helped his team immensely.

We shudder to think how good the team had looked had Ara stuck to his guns and drafted for his team and not against someone elses. Regardless, it's a strong squad that will need to grow into its potential.

Grade: B-

Hangin' and Bangin'

Best picks: Nelson (k), Torry Smith (4), Jermey Hill (9), Stewart (10)

Worst Picks: White (2), Newton (8)

One of two teams that drafted across the world, Hangin' & Bangin' entered the 2014 draft with Lynch and Nelson as their keepers. With a player from each major position as a keeper,  Bangin' could opt to go a few different ways in their draft strategy. The end result is a balanced lineup that has some depth and upside on the bench.

The trio of Nelson, Smith and White should be very solid and produce consistent numbers each week. Nelson has a shot at producing at a top five level, something Bangin' hasn't had on their lineup in a long time.  Along with Decker, the position is deep, and we can't fault the squad for drafting this way.

While the team seems to be solid at the WR core, we don't know what to make of the RB situation. Matthews is a big question mark, as are the other two Rbs, Hill and Stewart. While things may pan out for the team, the formation of the RB core has us questioning the White pick in the second round. Going White over Ellington was not wise, as having Ellington on the roster would have pushed Matthews to an RB3, a much more comfortable proposition. Torry and Jordy would have been fine as a WR duo.

Cam Newton being selected over the likes of Tony Romo and other Qbs that late is peculiar. If you waited that long, might as well wait a little more and just go all in with a match-up play like Rivers/Big Ben.

Should Hill and Stewart grow into potential weekly players, and Decker comes into form, Hangin should can be a contender.

Grade: B-

Magnum Sev.i

Best picks: Megatron (k), Ball (k), Crabtree (4), Cutler (8), Manziel (16)

Worst picks: Richardson (6), Sproles (7), Deangelo (9)

The Sev.i was placed in a precarious position, as one co-manager was left to draft on his own while the other was probably passed out on a curb in the red light district in Amsterdam. Go figure. Despite the Drafting handicap, Magnum managed himself well, drafting a fairly balanced roster with some nice value picks in the mid-rounds.

Having Megatron and Ball as keepers gave the team a very nice base to build from. With the two main positions covered they were free to explore taking top guys at others. Julius Thomas fit that bill in the second. Crabtree has WR1 upside, and love the value of getting him in the fourth. Julian Edelman should be a very solid #3 receiver and thus rounds out a very strong WR core. This area will not be a weakness for the Sev.i. Nice work here.

The running back situation is a bit more cloudy. While Ball should perform well as an RB1, we question the picks of Richardson and Sproles as the #2 and #3 Rbs on the roster. Neither evoke much excitement as picks. Taking Richardson without taking Bradshaw was also a mistake, as the latter could end up with the feature back role by the end of the year. If that were to happen, Sev.i would be razor thin at the Rb spots. Deangelo is a nice back, but not one that will keep the position afloat. We don't consider Mcfadden much of a value either.

Aside from the Rb position, all other areas look strong, and should be very competitive. Cutler was an exceptional value in the 8th round, and Sev.i made a lot of his "draft money" back with that pick. He could very well be a top five Qb this year.

Grade: B-

Looking Limp

Grabbers United

Best Picks: Dez (1), Cameron (6), Golden Tate (7), Ingram (9)

Worst Picks: Luck (5)

Let's get one thing out of the way immediately. We love Andrew Luck. Getting him in the fifth round is absolutely fine value. It's great. However, sometimes, no matter how much you want a guy, you may find yourself in a situation where you just cant take him, because you are in dire need of other positions. That is exactly the case here. Grabbers simply could not afford to take a Qb this early after keeping a TE and selecting two Wrs. We have no issue with the first three picks, as all are exceptional. Nice job there. But the selection of Luck set the rest of the roster in a tail spin, one that was hard to recover from.

Nabbing Luck that early, forced Grabbers to wait an entire 14 more picks until he could finally take his first RB in the 5th round. That was too long. With depth at the Qb position, waiting on the Qb would have been  the right strategy. Ending up with Romo in the 8th round, while getting a Ben Tate, Pierre Thomas, or other back in the fourth would have made the Rb core stronger without losing much at the Qb position. Sankey may work out to be a functional RB2, but on paper, position group is thin at the top.

The other questionable move was the selection of Cameron. Again, the value was there, but with Gronk already in place, and lots of great WRs and RBs available, this was an unnecessary pick.

While they missed early in the draft, Grabbers did fine to at least rectify a bad situation. Ingram and Pierce are great depth Rbs that could perform like weekly RB2s. Tate was also a bargain at his 7th round choice. The Wrs are looking strong.

In the end, the Grabbers is left with a roster that is strong at all major positions, aside from RB. If one of his Rbs should become an RB1, he will be very strong. That is what he has to be hoping for.

Grade: C

Awesomeness

Best Picks: AP (2), Tom Brady (6), Jackson (7), Moreno (9)

Worst Picks: Spiller (3), Garcon (4), Wright (5)

Awesomeness found his draft strategy handed to him on a silver platter early with the pick of AP at two. Once  AP was in hand to complement Gio, it should have been quite obvious how Awosmeness' draft should go: Heavy WR. While he did lean on the WRs through the early rounds, the pick of Spiller in the third completely through the plan off course. We don't like the pick. Already strong at the RB spot, selecting a timeshare back on a bad offense as your third selection isn't exciting and doesn't complement the roster well. Following that pick, Garcon was selected, another WR that is in a group of others on a team that could have offensive problems with a Qb. Why not go elsewhere? Take some risk. Get some upside. As opposed to those picks, what would the roster look like with say, Patterson and Crabtree? Or perhaps Stafford and Patterson/Crabtree? We think a lot better.  Wright/Garcon/Wayne have very little upside between the three of them, and the group as a whole seems more safe than explosive. We'd expect morIe from Awesomeness.

We can't fault the quarterback selection of Tom Brady in the 6th. With Gronkowski back, Brady should have a bounce back year. Nice value for a potential top 5 qb that late.

Taking Fred Jackson in the 7th further emphasizes why the Spiller pick seems a waste.We love the selection of Jackson that late, and had the strategy been planned, may have been better to just take Fred jax there, and use the Spiller pick elsewhere.  Moreno has upside to take over RB duties in Mia, and is nice value that late. Good work there.

Overall, the Awesomeness draft seems to be a smorgasbord of players that have more question marks than answers. We don't know what to make of this team, but don't see many areas where the squad will dominate any one position group.

Grade: C

 

Cobra Kai

Best Picks: McCoy (k), Murray (k), Floyd (4), Rudolph (6), Lattimer (13)

Worst Picks: Morris (3), Ertz (7), Harvin (5)

It's unusual to say this about the defending champion, but, despite having two great keepers, we feel Cobra managed to make his team worse after the draft. With two of the best keepers in the league, the Kai was set to make his team nearly unstoppable. Instead, we think that he left a lot to be desired with some peculiar decisions.

While getting the best available player on the board is a good strategy, sometimes those players aren't the best for your team. With two strong Rbs, Kai would have been wise to go heavy on the WRs early, and forgo the temptation of building on RBs. Morris is a nice player, but in a PPR league, his value is less. With Andre Johnson, Vjax, and other Wrs still available, we question the decision to go RB here, especially with the WRs that were selected after.

Ffloyd and Harvin could provide immense upside as a duo, but both come with huge risk. Relying on Floyd as WR1 is a leap of faith, and planning on Harvin to play 16 games and produce at high levels is a greater leap of faith. Without building depth at the WR position, Kai leaves himself extremely vulnerable when the bye weeks hit. Lattimer could be a great value play, as could Randle. But the unit as a whole doesn't excite much, and has immense downside associated with it.

Which leads to the peculiar selection of two tight ends in the mid rounds. With an oft injured Harvin as a number two wide-out, players like Colston, Terrance Williams, or Golden Tate would have strengthened the position nicely. We love the Rudolph pick, but can't sign off taking Ertz with all those WRs on the board. That was a huge mistake, as evidence of Cobra vehemently already to trade one during and after the draft.

Lastly, Russell Wilson is a nice value pick that late, as is Palmer, but neither look to have the umpf that you would hope from your Qb spot. Taking a Matt Ryan or Cutler instead of the tight ends would have been much more advisable.

In the end, the line-up has areas of strengths, with a lot of question marks associated with it. Could it all work out? Sure. But on paper, Cobra could have done a much better job maximizing on two great keepers. There were more misses than hits.

Grade: D+