Hye 5: Five Undervalued Players at the QB position
Raffi Lalazarian
In two weeks time, there won't be anything more to do. All the analyzing, number crunching, agonizing, and indecision will finally cease and give way to a new thirteen week adventure where you can cuss out the TV screen, cuss out your friends, and have a great time stressing over fantasy football every Sunday. It's fantastic!
Over the next two weeks, the "Hye 5" articles will examine which players at the position we feel are undervalued according to where they are being drafted, starting with the quarterback position, then moving on to wide receiver/tight end and running back. After all, a fantasy football draft is not only about the player you pick, it's about when you can pick him. Things change all the time in fantasy, and so will players values over the next two weeks, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't start somewhere.
Quarterbacks are kings in the NFL, so you can bet they are the same in Fantasy. Experts everywhere laud that managers should wait on a quarterback, and I don't disagree with that stance. However, that doesn't mean that you should wait until the twelfth round either. When it comes to drafting a signal caller, you focus on the players skill set as well as the situation he finds himself in. Ideally, you want a pass-happy offense coupled with a quarterback with a great skill set. Does the signal caller have a stud WR to throw to? How is the receiving core? Some go so far as to look at the teams defense to determine if they will be in shootouts. I think this is a bit premature. If the Seahawks are playing the Cowboys, it doesn't matter that the Cowboys defense might be shaky. Do you really think that Romo is gonna put up huge numbers versus that defense? I didn't think so.
The above criteria is obviously why Manning, Brees, and Rodgers are the first three off the board. While they are the creme de la creme of the quarterback position, that doesn't meant there aren't more that can offer you just as much fantasy production on a given week. Here are five quarterbacks that can be had somewhere after the second round that will offer just as much of a chance for a great year at a discount value.
1. Andrew Luck
Current ADP: Mid-5th round
Rank should be: Late 3rd/Early 4th
A fifth round quarterback doesn't seem like it would be that great of value, unless you say that Luck could finish as one of the top three quarterbacks in fantasy. Yes, you heard that correctly. I think that Luck will finish in the top three, and wouldn't be surprised if he ends the year as #1. Bold statements need backup, so here's mine.
First lets consider the other players that have the same potential. Peyton Manning is obviously the favorite to land that honor, but he has a host of things against him. One, he is a year older and lost his redzone weapon in Decker. Two, Denver was trying to get Manning the record last year, and this year, with an improved defense, may opt to rest Manning a bit more in preparation for the postseason. I think Manning's numbers drop enough to make him vulnerable at the top.
Sean Peyton has already said that they are going to try to balance the offense a bit more, which means more running. Sure he'll get numbers, but the balanced attack will eat away at his upside just a tad. Secondly, if you look at Drew Brees's numbers in the second half of the season last year, you'll notice a significant drop off in production. In the final 8 games of the season including playoffs, Brees had only 3 multi-touchdown games. Brees was nicked up and that had something to do with it, but It's no coincidence that his drop off coincided with injury to Jimmy Graham as well. One nick to Graham, and his numbers could come down significantly again.
Lastly, Aaron Rodgers. I'll admit, Rodgers is in my eyes the strongest candidate to finish the year at number one, but he isn't full proof to downside either. Did we forget that Jordy Nelson is himself really injury prone, and with out James Jones and Jermichael Finely, should Nelson be out for an extended time, who becomes the redzone target?
Andrew Luck has a few things going for him that are positives when it comes to fantasy quarterbacks. Hakeem Nicks was added to the roster (yes he may be slow and old, but in the redzone he can still produce). His receiving core is fully healthy, including the return of Dwayne Allen another redzone target and rookie speedster Donte Moncrief. Looking at his numbers, he is entering his third season, a year when the majority of big signal callers had a jump in production (Brees went from years with 11 and 17 tds thrown to 27 in his 3rd year). Last season, Luck threw for 3800 yards with 23 Tds and 7 Ints, adding 377 rushing yards and 4 rush Tds. With the return of Allen, addition of Nicks, and a healthy Reggie Wayne, TY Hilton, and the rest of the bunch, it just seems unlikely that Luck's numbers will regress or stay flat. Couple that with the fact that the Colts don't have much of a running game. They won't be able to run the clock out in games and will rely on Luck more to keep the game in hand. An increase in production seems set, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a 10 touchdown one at that. He's going as the 5th rated QB off the board, which is fine for whoever drafts him. He'll finish better than that. Bank on it.
Drafted with expectations of: 3500+ yrds, 20-25 tds, 300+ rush yrds, 5 tds.
Should finish with: 4400+ yrds, 30+ tds, 300 rush yrds 5 tds.
2. Matt Ryan
Current ADP: Late 7th Round
Rank should be: Late 5th Round
If Andrew Luck getting Wayne back from injury was a boost, then Julio Jones must be rocket fuel for Ryan. Do we forget that Matt Ryan is only one year removed from finishing in the top 5 amongst fantasy quarterbacks? Now I do admit that losing Tony G is going to take some wind out of the "good ship Ryan-pop's" sails, but that shouldn't be anything that Julio Jones can't make up for. What is more important is that the Falcons are reportedly going to operate out of a three-wide set as their base, highlighting their strong WR core and pass catching running backs. If that doesn't set the table for a big year for Ryan, I don't know what will. Having three wide receivers at his disposal, Matty Ice will have ample opportunity to return to his 2012 form despite the loss of Tony G. It's also worth noting that Steven Jackson is a year older and the falcons know this. Drafting Devonta Freeman was a move that showcased the coaching staffs desire to open up the offense and throw it around a little more. They won't be able to be affect with Steven Jackson taking the bulk of the focus.
In 2012, Matty Ice finished the year with 4700 yards passing and a 32/14 td/int ratio. There is no reason to thing that those yardage totals aren't possible with a trio like Julio, Roddy, and Douglas. Tony G had eight touchdowns that year, and I don't think it would be far fetched to say that number couldn't be split between Julio, Roddy, and Douglas. Matt Ryan is top 5 Qb potential at a late mid-round price. Call the police. This is stealing.
Drafted with expectations of: 3900+ yrds, 27 tds,
Should finish with: 4500+ yrds, 30+tds
3. Tony Romo
Current ADP: Early 9th round
Rank Should be: Mid-7th round
Stop me if you've heard this before. Tony Romo is an overrated quarterback. Please, keep saying that. It helps drive his value through the floor. So let me get this straight. I get a Qb who has a stud WR, stud TE, solid WR core, great offensive line, pass-catching solid running backs, and plays in a dome, all for a 9th round price? Did someone get fired for this? Every year seems to be the year to "defend Tony Romo," and this one seems no different. He's got a horrible stigma attached to his name that he can't shake as a real NFL quarterback, but how that has infested the fantasy universe is beyond me. There are no glaring reasons why Romo can't have as big a year as any other quarterback drafted above him, except for that little nasty stigma that he can't shake. Romo threw for 4900 yrds and 28/19 tds/ints in 2012 (finishing 8th) and 3800 31/10 last year (good for 8th again). His ceiling seems to be right around there, unless you consider a few other factors. The cowboys have had a rotation of wide receivers at the second WR spot since 2011, when Miles Austin started to fall off the map. Terrence Williams has a strong hold on that spot in 2014 and reports are he has looked good. With a more consistent core, Romo should feel more comfortable in the pocket.
But the biggest boost is perhaps the signing of Scott Linehan, the ex-Detriot Lions offensive coordinator. Compare the Cowboys personnel to the ones the lions had and you may find its very similar, if not slightly tilted in the Cowboys favor. Mega and Dez are studs. Witten is better than any tight end Stafford had. Terrence Williams should be as good if not better than Titus Young, Broyles or anyone else threw out along side Calvin. Lastly, Demarco Murray is much more of a complete back than Reggie Bush. With the glowing parts ready to use at his disposal, Linehan will give Romo the one thing that he hasn't had yet in his career, a stable, reliable, innovative play caller that he can trust. In years past, the Cowboys have passed that duty back and forth from coach to coordinator back to coach. Putting Romo at ease will lead to one of his best seasons yet.
Drafted with expectations of: 3300+ yrds, 25 tds,
Should finish with: 4800+ yrds, 30+ tds,
4. Colin Kaepernick
Current ADP: Late 9th
Rank should be: Mid-7th
When a quarterback gets a 1,000 yard receiver back to full health, and then gets another 1,000 yard receiver via trade, and adds them to a roster that has an already reliable wide out and tight end who creates mismatches, what happens? Answer: everything you can think of. The quarterback from "Tattooine" is primed for a huge year, thanks to the addition of Stevie Johnson and the return of Michael Crabtree. Kap spent most of last season throwing to guys who were third and fourth tier wide receivers. Fullback Bruce Miller was the teams third leading receiver. I think I will repeat that because that bears repeating. Bruce Miller, the stocky blocker out of the back field was the teams third leading receiver. Oh, and he's back too from injury this year. Hallelujah! It's a minor miracle that Kaepernick threw for 3100 yards and 21 tds.
On top of the loss of half his receiving core, Kaepernick played in pain, admitting that he suffered chipped bone in his foot during the week 2 game against the Seahawks. Not being able to plant your foot and throw comfortably will affect any quarterbacks trajectory and location. We can expect his 58% completion rate to rise this year as a combined result of being healed and having a full arsenal of wide outs to his disposal. The Niners didn't trade for Stevie Johnson to watch him block and stand on the sidelines. Expect Kap and co. to be in more three wide sets, looking to create one-on-one mismatches for Vernon, Crab and Stevie. Spreading the field will also allow Kap more room to roam, and I would not be the least surprised if his rushing numbers rose as a result. The Niners know this year is the year they must win it all, so I would expect them to pull out all the stops, unleashing Kaepernick in any way they can.
Drafted with expectations of: 3200+ yrds, 20 tds, 400+ rush yrds, 5 tds.
Should finish with: 3800+ yrds, 25+ tds, 500 rush yrds, 7 tds.
5. Ben Roethlisberger
Current ADP: Late 11th Round
Rank Should Be: Mid-8th Round
He's not the most flashy fantasy quarterback name on the board. He won't have many 5 touchdown games, or throw for 400 yards too often (though he did that twice last year) however, Big Ben is as reliable as they come. Finishing in the top ten in 2013, he is a late round pick that is great upside. Last season, Ben throw for more attempts than any in his career, 584. With an emphasis on running a "no-huddle" offense to maximize the number of plays run a game, those numbers should remain where they are. The Steelers have a great WR group, lead by Antonio Brown, a fast twitch player that excels in the open field. Roethlisberger also gets the addition of a developed Marcus Wheaton, who had a fine preseason game against the bills. With LeVon Bell able to catch passes out of the backfield, the Steelers are going to push tempo and put the ball in Big Ben's hands. That is a recipe for success in the fantasy world, especially when it is handed to a reliable quarterback that has a history of top five fantasy finishes.
Owners who miss-out on the above quarterbacks can look to nab Ben after the 8th round and pair him with another late Qb in hopes of playing match-ups and striking fantasy gold. While I don't expect Ben to leapfrog everyone and finish the year in the top-five, he will more than likely finish in the top ten, with a few huge games during the year that will be all the difference for a manager who invested a pick for him. Expect an improvement on last years stat line of 4200 28/14. In Todd Haley we trust.
Drafted with expectations of: 3800 yrds, 24 tds.
Should finish with: 4300+ yrds, 30+ tds,