Who Really are the Best Managers in the AFFL? Historical Records Tell the Story.
Raffi Lalazarian
"Congrats man, good game." The text sent by Hartan owner Vartan after a bitter loss in the semi-final game to Cobra Kai during last years playoffs. The win gives Cobra Kai his first playoff victory against team two-face. More importantly, the win leads Sayyad to his first AFFL title, and knocks Hartan to the 3rd place game for the third time in as many years. 3 straight semi-final appearances versus one title. If you had to take one, which manager would you take? Sayyad or Hartan?
Who really are the top managers in the AFFL? It's a question that is argued over every year. Prime Time owner Ara insists that he belongs in the top of the class. Baret will scorn poor decisions by others in order to propel his name to the top. Sayyad will gloat that his tactics are always a cut above everyone else. Shant exudes confidence when claiming to be the best. The rhetoric goes on and on and on. It's enough to make you puke. Trading practices, waiver decisions, drafting strategy; they're all used as rationale to lambast or praise league owners in order to legitimize a manager's own ranking system. But how about using the one metric that matters, wins.
The AFFL has just released the historical head-to-head records between all the managers in the league over the past seven years. The detailed chart shows the record of teams against all other teams, with playoff wins in it's own category. The overall record of the teams regular season and post-season are also included, giving us the first accurate tool to asses who truly has done the best job as manager of their franchise and whom has fallen short. What better criteria to rank the managers than by how they performed against each other. Some conclusions will be quite obvious, but the chart below gives us a well rounded view of each teams successes and failures when pinned up against their counterparts. Let's get to the breakdown.
The chart reads from left to right starting with Bomba at the top row, then going down to Awesomeness, then BDiddy's win/loss totals. The yellow highlighted boxes show match-ups that have a margin greater than 3 games in the win column for a team. The grey boxes show match-ups that have a margin greater than 3 games in the loss column against a team.
A couple of things jump out immediately when looking at the historical records. Both Vosgee and HBK have been getting their ass kicked over the years. From the chart, Gyank has had five different teams (Bomba, Hartan, Hangin', Magnum, Prime Time) thump him over the past seven years, leaving a head-to-head record against those managers with a difference of more than 3 in the win-to-loss column, the most of any manager. HBK comes in at a close second with four different teams dishing out the services.
Conversely, teams like Bomba, Awesomeness, Cobra Kai, and Prime Time have each had dominant success over three teams in head to head match-ups. Granted, those wins were more than likely against inferior teams, they still can help us begin to group managers in tiers. We will revisit this later in the article.
Before we begin, it must be pointed out that teams joined the AFFL at different times, and thus, there is a wide range in the total number of games played throughout the league. Bomba, Prime Time, Hangin' and Bangin', and HBK have been part of the league the longest (2006), so they will have the most games played. In 2007, Hartan, Vosgee, and Cobra joined. Awesomeness, Grabbers, and BDiddy came in during the 2008 season, Jaj in '09, and lastly Magnum Sev.i in 2010. We must take this into consideration when examining the chart, as all records won't be equal. Overall record can't be the only factor in assessing our managerial ranks. We will take it into consideration, but also opt to see what the head-to-head records tell us about how they have performed on a yearly basis. Rather than focus solely on overall record, lets couple it with a summary of the teams head-to-head records to get an accurate overall view of things. The chart below gives us a nice summary of the above chart.
The chart above begins to group teams head-to-head match-ups into three categories: positive win total (1st column), negative win total (2nd column), and a tie in the head-to-head match-up (3rd column). Teams are lined-up according to the highest number of positive win records, with Bomba leading the list with seven.
From this we can note a few interesting observations. We would expect that Bomba, Prime Time, and Hartan be near the top of the chart given that they have been in the league the longest, and have had the most games total, but what is surprising is the addition of Jaj Cousteau. Despite being in the league only five years, Cousteau has managed to have a winning record against 6 different teams and drawing even against three others. We can interpret this to mean that he has been very good at consistently being competitive despite perhaps having a few poor performing years.
Also worth noting is the lower part of the chart. BDiddy and HBK find themselves without much dominance in head-to-head match-ups and struggle to find wins. From Hangin' on down to Vosgee, that group of managers have managed an overall record of less than .500, and have more head to match-ups that are a negative result than a positive one. Not good.
If we now revisit the number of dominant wins by a team as stated earlier in the article, we can get a better idea of which managers are truly separating themselves from the pack. The chart below is a summary of the yellow and grey boxes that highlight the historical chart.
As you can see, the chart above essentially splits the group of twelve managers into two camps; those above and below zero in net difference between dominant and poor head-to-head match-ups win/loss results. For example, Hartan has 2 teams that he has a win/loss record of greater than 3 games, and zero teams that he is getting dominated against. That's very good. Grabbers, however, has zero teams that he can claim he dominates by a win/loss margin greater than 3, while three teams do so to him. If we consider this chart along with the one above, we may be able to get a more accurate assessment of just who is doing what in the league when it comes to the regular season.
We can note that some teams are starting to emerge from the pack, as we can notice a patern similar teams appearing at the top of each of these lists. Consistency is a huge part of being considered amongst the best.
But so far, all the charts have discussed the regular season. What about the postseason you may say? Playoff appearances. Championships. Those are far more important than regular season records. Yes and no. There are fluke titles, and sometimes luck just takes over. In order for us to assess the value of a championship, we'll have to put it up against the charts from above. We can use it to bump teams over others, but a championship doesn't mean you are automatically better than another manager. Let's take a look at some post-season statistics to factor in.
Because teams entered into the league at different times, judging playoff records is going to be a bit more difficult. A team like Sev.i who came into the league in 2010 has less opportunities to make the playoffs than a team like Hartan for example. So while both teams have a losing playoff record, Magnum's 2-3 record and 5 playoff games looks a little better Hartan's three wins out of nine chances, considering Sev.i has only four years in the league compared to Hartan's 7.
Likewise, we should expect teams that have been in the league the longest to have the highest number of playoff appearances and can penalize teams who don't. Awesomeness has been in the league less than HBK and Cobra, arriving the same year as BDiddy, and yet has as many or more playoff games than all three.
Another factor to our equation is the number of top 3 finishes as well as titles a team has gained. Titles are of course what we all play for,however, top three finishes will tell us the playoff consistency of a team and is a better gauge for overall success. For example, how does Prime Time's four top three finishes look compared to Cobra Kai's one, even though Cobra won the AFFL championship? How does it fair against Hartan's lone title? While BDiddy and Magnum don't have the championship pedigree that Hartan and Cobra have, they each have finished in the top three more times, and each have more playoff wins than Cobra. How do we factor that in?
This all leads us back to our original question, who are the best managers in the league? How should we rank them? After examining the records, the charts, the graphs, and all that there is to examine, we have put managers into tiers, and ranked them according to all the information gathered above. From least to beast, here we go...
Happy To Be Playing
Mardig - Vosgereechee Gyank
You kinda saw this one coming from the charts. The Gyank life may be good in reality, but in fantasy it's taking a dive. Averaging one playoff appearance over a six year span, the next time we can expect the Gyank to make the playoffs should be around 2016. He has yet to put a playoff victory on his resume, being one of two teams to claim such a feat. With an overall record of 31-52, a thirty-seven percent winning percentage, and a net differential of negative four when it comes to head-to-head match-ups with a differential of three, Mardig really has been through the mud when it comes to the AFFL. To add salt on the wound, he has yet to beat Magnum. Ever. The best thing you can say about the man is he keeps on plugging along, trying to find a new angle to get back to the promise land. He has one of the coolest names, with a little fist knock to boot. There are positives, but not when it comes to the history of his team. We can only say, things can't possibly get any worse. Here is to the next seven years buddy.
Sassoon - Grabbers United
Sassoon has to be the most liked manager in the league, but likes don't get you wins, and that's the problem. After all the analysis of his win/losses over the years, it's a small miracle that he made it to he finals (although we know his new born baby had a lot to do with that). Grabbers can only claim to have a winning record against three other AFFL teams, but hasn't dominated anyone for the past seven years. It's not good when you have yet to beat a manager, and Sassoon has yet do that against Bomba and Jaj. A respectable playoff record is something that Grabbers can hang his hat on, including the run to the finals only a few years ago. With a 30-45 lifetime record, it is high time that Sassoon changed things around and look for a new system to implement for his team. He may consider asking for outside counsel. We hope that things turn around for the better starting this year, as the league is far better off when teams like Grabbers and Vosgee are regular players. A -3 net difference in head-to-head match-ups with a 3 game differential tells us that he hasn't been competitive enough to rank higher on the list. Maybe in the future, but not right now.
We Thought They'd Be Better
Avo & Dre - Hangin' & Bangin'
This group consists of two teams whose managers are very knowledgeable, but whose execution of their strategies have been horrendous. Dre & Avo have been to the post-season four times, but have yet to put a win on the board. That ties them with Vosgee as the only other team to have never won a playoff game. Could this be because both of them are Raider fans and have jinxed their own team due to their love for the silver and black? Will the Raiders win a playoff game before Hangin' does? We wouldn't think we would be asking these questions four years ago, but times change. They have accumulated a respectable 37-44 lifetime record, but have been lackluster in their head-to-head match-ups. Five teams have winning records against them, and they have only dominated one team in all the 8 years in the league. The one positive note that Hangin' has going for them is that they are the only team that has dominated the Bomba, amassing a 6-3 lifetime record. They are indeed the bomb squad, but are a dud everywhere else in the league. For years, bad luck crippled their team. Then it was poor draft choices. Will they ever get things together? We must admit, we would never have thought they would be this low, but numbers don't lie, and the Hangin' & Bangin' franchise isn't doing much of either against the competition. If they have an ounce of pride in what they do, this year will be the year they get that playoff monkey off their back. You have to show guts if you wanna climb the managerial rope. We're still waiting for H&B to show theirs, rather than have it splatter all over the place every Sunday.
Shant - HBK Shant Michaels
Numbers don't lie, so we won't either. After winning a title in '06 with Bomba manager Raffi, Shant's team has seemingly gone MIA. Tied with Vosgee with the lowest winning percentage in the league, Shant has a losing head-to-head record against 8 other teams in the league. That is far and away the worst of the bunch. A 31-52 record with only 4 playoff games to his credit, the HBK franchise hasn't been all to successful. What makes matters worse is the fact that he has only managed to dominate against one team, but has been a -3 win/loss record against four other teams, second most in the league. The AFFL is a what have you done for me lately kind of league, and lately, things have started to look good for HBK. Last year was his first trip back to the playoffs since 2008. Yikes. If he can put things together in 2014, and then again in 2015, he will have made the playoffs in three consecutive years for the first time since his first three years in the league. He will ascend the charts and these rankings as well. But when it comes to head-to-head match-ups, as it stands now, he's getting his butt handed to him. If it weren't for the title that he won in '06, Shant could very well be at the bottom of this list. We don't want to infuriate him or his fan base, as we love the chin music when it comes to town, so hopefully the motivation from this spot will fuel the HBK to AFFL glory and back to his day in the sun. It'll start by beating up on others in the league, and not them beating up the HBK.
The Wild Bunch
Chris - Jaj Cousteau
Jaj hasn't come to the top of the AFFL too many times, but what is most impressive about that is that he's still managed to beat up on everyone around the league. He claims a winning head-to-head record against six other teams, with two splits, which is second best in the league. His playoff record does him no favors, but the addition of a top three finish makes us feel better about putting him here. While Chris has only dominated one team by more than three wins, he has only allowed one team to do the same to him, leaving a net difference of zero. This indicates that his teams are usually right at the norm, and consistent year in and year out. In order for the Jajman to move up to the elite tier of managers, he's going to have to continue the consistency at a higher level, and throw in a trip to the finals. He belongs in the Wild bunch because you never know what to expect from Cousteau. He can win in so many different ways, using a variety of strategies from year-to-year. He can't be above the other managers on the list, due to the overall success that appear on their resumes. Rest assured, 2014 will be a year that Cousteau can establish himself as one of the top managers in the league. He is one of the few managers that isn't afraid to do what he believes in, something that his bitten him in the past, but will payoff in the long run. Chris has failed to make the playoffs the past two years, after making them the first three straight. Getting back to the post-season is step one. Hopefully it begins this season.
Baret, Mikey & Tiggy - BDiddy
They could be the group of managers that make the most noise in the League, or the ones you know as being the most goofy. Plan 'A', Plan 'B' and more always seems to get the Diddy to the right places in the league. Having made the playoff in 4 of the 6 years they have been around, BDiddy is one of the most consistent teams in the league. What they lack in the head-to-head department, they make for in the postseason. With two third place finishes, they epitomize the type of team that is on the verge of getting over the hump, but just haven't. But only having three winning records against teams in the league, while being below .500 against 5 of them, isn't very good. We'd expect better from a team that has three managers running the show. Diddy is one of the older franchises, so the fact that he has yet to truly dominate a team by more than three wins is more a testament to mediocrity than consistency. The post-season isn't enough for us to just ignore the fact that they haven't showcased an ability to really leave their mark on the AFFL. Does anyone remember third place finishes? We need something higher from Monkey Mike and crew. For all the planning that goes on, for all the looking ahead to the playoffs, you would think that one of these years they will formulate a team that would be built to win it all, and not be content with stopping short of the mark. With that being said, these rankings are fluid, and only represent where the team is right now on the list according to the resume. Add some hardware, and improve on the head-to-head stuff, and we'll see Diddy climb fast.
Sayyad - Cobra Kai
The current champion clocks in at the top half of the list after claiming the AFFL title in 2013. With a solid 45-36 record over a seven year span in the league, we think Sayyad is one of the premier managers in the AFFL. No one works harder for results than he does. While his lifetime record is over .500, his head-to-head match-ups lack any sort of umpf that we would expect from a manager who has been in the league as long as he has. Failing to finish in the top three in six straight years also doesn't bode well, neither does the fact that prior to 2013, Cobra had only had two playoff games versus the competition. None-the-less, Sayyad scores high on marks for having dominated three different teams by a margin of 3 wins or more. If he can manage to put together back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time in his teams history, he will entrench himself in the penthouse of AFFL managers. Until then, many will be speculating if last year was for real, or a fluke. After all, Grabbers made the finals and hasn't shown nearly the win/loss record as Cobra. We expect Sayyad to have everything lined up for his team in order to have a successful 2013 season. He does after all have the momentum going for him, as well as a very influential co-manager.
On the Door Step
Sevag & Danny - Magnum Sev.i
Ever since entering the league in 2010, Sev.i has been a consistent threat to all AFFL teams. Sevag and Danny are a vicious duo on the waiver wire and in the draft room. They have made the postseason in two of the four years in the league, with a second place and third place finish. That is impressive. With a lifetime record 27-25, they have a head-to-head record count that does not have any team dominating them by more than 3 wins. They are one of only three teams that can claim such a feat. Sev.i is notorious for having a crazy plan of attack when it comes to approaching the season. You never know what you are going to get with the Magnum man, and I don't think he does either. We like Magnum to be a favorite to make the playoffs most years, but especially now, being that they have potentially great keepers on their roster. Sevag is currently taking residence in the Netherlands, so it will be interesting to see if the move overseas forces the 'stache to crumble. The resume looks good, so hopefully they don't spoil it.
The Methodical Men
Vartan & Harout - Hartan
So it does indeed look like three semi-finals finishes are valued higher than one lone title. Hartan have been in the league a long time, but they took a while to get to where they are today. For years they wallowed in the mediocrity of 8th place finishes, until around 2010, where they finally adjusted their style of play. Growing as a manager is something we look for in a teams franchise, and they have exhibited that. They have accumulated the second best win percentage in the league, behind bomba, and have a respectable 47-35 overall mark. Their 3-6 playoff record needs improvement, as winning only three games doesn't show much consistency in the postseason However, having that many playoff games is a plus for a team that has been in the league as long as they have. We'd expect it. They have been a regular in the semi-final game for the past three season which is the type of consistency you look for in a manager. They also get a check mark for having won the AFFL title, albeit during a ten team season. It's also nice when a manager has their own unique draft system, and Hartan has that. You'll hear them call out numbers, rather than players names, to speak in code to one another. Awesome stuff. Looking at their head-to-head match-ups, they have a positive win total against 5 other teams, and haven't had any team dominate them for the past seven seasons. Solid. When it comes to managing, their resume shows success, consistency, solid numbers, and dominance, all key factors in choosing our top managers.
The Top of the Crop
Ara - Prime Time
Every year, it's the same story: Ara does something stupid at the draft. Ara makes a bad trade. Ara's team is dead. Ara makes it to the 3rd place game. The group of managers at the top of the list are the most successful and consistent in the league. There really is no debate here. Prime Time is a regular fixture when it comes to the postseason and the numbers back it up. His overall record is 47-39, the third best winning percentage in the league, and his head-to-head match-ups have yeilded 6 records that are in his favor in the win column. Only Bomba has a higher number. While his records of dominance don't really stand out, as he has a net differential of one in that department, the four top three finishes are second best in the league. Being one of the first teams in the AFFL we'd expect a number that high. He's made the finals a few times, having finished second in both cases. While his day-to-day managerial tactics may be a little off and unorthodox, there is no questioning the accolades that he has received. His resume looks like the third best in the AFFL, and that's where we'll put him. Nobody will be happy about this ranking, but facts are facts. Ignore all the hype that Prime Time puts out there for himself. Ignore all the ways he pisses everyone off. Bottom line, he has a system where he consistently is a threat to win it all. That kind of manager isn't the norm.
David - Awesomeness
When you enter into the league and make the finals three consecutive years, there is no wonder why you are ranked this high. Awesomeness was the first team to achieve such a feat, and capped off the run with back-to-back titles. The titles themselves aren't what is impressive, it's also the records that go along with them. After only five seasons as a manager in the league, David has a 4-2 playoff record, with three trips to the championship game. Only one other team can claim to have such a feat. His head-to-head match-ups show a solid story, as he has a winning record against 5 teams, and a losing record against only 2 teams in the league. He's beating-up on everyone and not letting others return the favor. His records of dominance yield a net difference of 2, as he has 3 teams he has a margin of 3 games or better against. With all that is going great for the resume, there looks to be some weaknesses brewing. David has failed to make it to the postseason the past two years, so his stay at the top is not cemented. Not making the trip to the playoffs in 2014 could mean the mojo has worn off and his reign as one of the more dominant coaches in the league is coming to a close. We'll never count the Awesome one out, but we'll freely admit that we're a bit worried. When it comes to the past seven years, there is no other team that can claim the kind of success that David has. Well none except one..
The Guy to Beat-up For Making the Top of the List.
Raffi - Bomba
While it would be easy to see the titles that Bomba has accumulated as the defacto reason to rank him here, that is only part of the reason he places at the top of the list. Winning championships doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things, unless you do it regularly. But looking at all the categories, examining the playoff appearances, the head-to-head records, and the records of dominance, no other manager has performed quite like Bomba. Being a founding member of the league, Raffi has played the most games as compared to any other manager. With that kind of sample size, he had better win a whole heck of a lot of them, and he has. His winning percentage is highest in the league, with an overall record of 54-33. What is noticeable about that record is the low number of losses, tied for fewest in the league. When it comes to head-to-head match-ups, Bomba kicks everyone in the ass and it isn't close. 7 records are in his favor, with only two teams claiming to have the edge on his squad. Looking at the areas of dominance, he dominates three different teams while only getting beaten up by one, for a net difference of 1. But what really sets him apart from the rest is the postseason consistency. Over the past seven years, he's made 6 top three finishes, with 4 titles. At some point, we just have to say that luck isn't the only thing that is going on here. His 10-3 record is the best in the league, with a ridiculous 76% win percentage. Raffi is the manager that everyone despises and the one that they are trying to catch. It will be sometime before his resume looks like the second or third best in the league, but it will happen. Until then, the manager who can lead a team to the playoffs is the one that is most likely to win it all when he gets there.